NBN Fibre to the Node Trial at Umina Beach

NBN to remediate business connections over copper

But will lock you in for 12 months if the existing copper line isn’t up to scratch

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, nbn, will begin offering line remediation to business services unable to reach their committed speeds over the copper network.

Business level services delivered over Traffic Class 2 (TC-2) have a committed information rate (CIR) which effectively guarantees a connection’s transfer rate.  Typical residential services are provisioned over Traffic Class 4, which has a peak information rate (PIR) describing the “up to” transfer rate achievable over the line.

The company is already offering TC-2 services over its FTTN and FTTB network with symmetrical transfer speeds of 5, 10 or 20 Mbps.  However, according to the current Wholesale Broadband Agreement (WBA), the company is currently not committing to its Committed Information Rate — stating:

“the actual Information Rate experienced by Customer, Downstream Customer or the relevant End User, may each be significantly less than the downstream CIR and upstream CIR of the bandwidth profile ordered by Customer in respect of the relevant Ordered Product”

According to the revised WBA on its website, the company will enable customers to submit a trouble ticket to remediate the copper line.  However, nbn will also require the end user to take up the service for at least 12 months or will have to pay an early disconnection or modification fee.

NBN will charge an early termination or modification fee if customers had their line remediated
NBN will charge an early termination or modification fee if customers had their business line remediated

Increased FTTN performance objectives

nbn is also increasing its network availability operational target on the FTTN Network from 99.70% to 99.80%.  The agreement states that “operational targets are non-binding and aspirational”.

The new wholesale broadband agreement will become effective in early December 2016.


Widespread delays plague Multi-Technology rollout

Analysis: Some areas delayed by up to 8 months, with 290k premises delayed by at least a month

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network has updated its rollout schedule, revealing wide ranging delays of over a month in 105 multi-technology mix (MTM) rollout areas around Australia, affecting around 290,000 premises.

These rollout areas predominantly uses the Coalition’s preferred Fibre to the Node (FTTN) technology, where the company rolls out fibre to the neighbourhood and reconnects with the existing copper to the home.  Despite promising rollouts using the FTTN technology to be faster to complete, the company had reportedly been facing issues including slow rollout design approvals from power companies who will have to power the nodes in the streets.  The reasoning behind the latest set of delays is unknown.

The areas worst affected by the delay are Cygnet in Tasmania and Mornington in Victoria, with a delay of 8 months shifting completion dates from late 2016 to mid 2017.  The is followed closely by another rollout area in Mornington, Victoria as well as South Hobart and Margate in Tasmania and Garfield in Victoria with delays of between 6 and 7 months.

The rollout in Fletcher, NSW and suburbs near Claremont, Hobart, Tasmania have been set back by around 5 months.  Another 8 rollout areas, covering around 22,400 premises in parts of Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and New South Wales have been delayed by 4 months.

For a full list of affected areas, refer to the table below.

Another 22 areas, not listed below, were delayed by less than a month.

Service Area Module (SAM) Locality May completion date June completion date # of months delayed Approx number of premises affected
7CYE-01 Cygnet Oct-2016 Jun-2017 8 600
3MOR-02 Mornington 12-Aug-2016 Apr-2017 8 3400
3MOR-05 Mornington Sep-2016 Apr-2017 7 2300
7HOB-12 South Hobart, Wellington Park, Fern Tree Oct-2016 Apr-2017 6 1000
7MGT-01 Electrona, Lower Snug, Margate, Snug, Coningham Dec-2016 Jun-2017 6 2000
3GAR-01 Garfield, Longwarry, Bunyip 05-Aug-2016 Feb-2017 6 2300
2NLT-01 Fletcher Oct-2016 Mar-2017 5 3700
7NWT-02 Chigwell, Berriedale Oct-2016 Mar-2017 5 2800
3TAG-04 Traralgon Oct-2016 Feb-2017 4 2600
4IGH-01 Ingham Oct-2016 Feb-2017 4 3000
6RKH-01 Safety Bay, Rockingham Sep-2016 Jan-2017 4 3100
6RKH-04 Rockingham, Safety Bay, Cooloongup Sep-2016 Jan-2017 4 3500
6ARM-02 Cardup, Byford Nov-2016 Mar-2017 4 4700
7BUI-04 Hillcrest, Montello, Park Grove, Parklands, Burnie Jan-2017 May-2017 4 1800
7HUL-01 Huonville, Ranelagh, Franklin Jan-2017 May-2017 4 2600
2GUL-01 Gulgong 15-Jul-2016 Nov-2016 4 1100
2NRN-01 Spring Farm Nov-2016 Feb-2017 3 800
7DER-04 Don, Stony Rise, Devonport Nov-2016 Feb-2017 3 3000
4SHF-02 Trinity Beach Sep-2016 Dec-2016 3 3200
2SHH-04 Flinders, Blackbutt Jan-2017 Apr-2017 3 3300
7ETD-01 East Devonport, Ambleside Dec-2016 Mar-2017 3 2600
7DSF-01 Dodges Ferry, Forcett, Lewisham, Primrose Sands, Carlton Dec-2016 Mar-2017 3 4300
7DER-03 Miandetta, Quoiba, Spreyton, Stony Rise, Tugrah, Aberdeen Jan-2017 Apr-2017 3 2900
3TAG-06 Traralgon 19-Aug-2016 Nov-2016 2 3400
2GLB-03 Run-o-Waters, Goulburn 22-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 2600
4WUR-09 Minyama, Buddina 08-Jul-2016 16-Sep-2016 2 3400
3MOE-03 Newborough, Moe 29-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 2800
2GLB-02 Goulburn 29-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 3200
3CRB-06 Craigieburn 29-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 4400
2GLB-04 Goulburn 22-Jul-2016 23-Sep-2016 2 2900
2ALB-01 South Albury, Albury 29-Jul-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 3600
7BUI-01 Emu Heights, Havenview, South Burnie, Wivenhoe, Burnie Dec-2016 Feb-2017 2 1200
3TAG-03 Traralgon East, Traralgon Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3100
4EDG-08 Kanimbla, Whitfield, Brinsmead Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 2600
4FRV-01 Norman Gardens Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3300
7HOB-11 Moonah, New Town, Lenah Valley Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3000
3WBO-01 Warrnambool Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3700
7HOB-10 Sandy Bay Oct-2016 Dec-2016 2 3000
2BUP-03 Doyalson, Wyee, Blue Haven Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 3100
2NRN-06 Harrington Park Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 1800
3RYE-01 Rye Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 4000
4BWE-01 Bowen Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 2200
5MIC-01 Millicent Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 2600
3CBR-64 Coburg North,Preston (Vic.),Reservoir (Vic.) Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 1200
2BUP-01 San Remo, Buff Point 05-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 2 3200
3COL-02 Colac East, Elliminyt, Colac 05-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 2 3900
2MAI-09 Maitland, Telarah, Lorn 15-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 2 3300
3WAN-01 Wangaratta 15-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 2 3000
2MAI-06 Bolwarra Heights, Largs, Mindaribba, Bolwarra 22-Jul-2016 16-Sep-2016 2 2200
2ALB-04 North Albury, Albury 05-Aug-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 3400
2AVA-02 Avalon 05-Aug-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 2900
2MAI-01 Windella, Rutherford 12-Aug-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 1000
3MOE-04 Yallourn North, Newborough 19-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 1 3300
2MSV-03 East Bowral, Bowral 15-Jul-2016 26-Aug-2016 1 3500
2ALB-03 West Albury, Albury 29-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 1 3700
3SHP-09 Kialla West, Kialla 29-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 1 1500
2MTT-01 Mittagong, Willow Vale, Braemar 12-Aug-2016 23-Sep-2016 1 2000
4EDG-07 Earlville, Mooroobool, Bayview Heights 26-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 1 3400
3WAN-02 Wangaratta 15-Jul-2016 19-Aug-2016 1 2900
3WGU-04 Drouin East, Drouin 22-Jul-2016 26-Aug-2016 1 3400
7DER-01 Devonport 05-Aug-2016 09-Sep-2016 1 1800
2ERN-03 Green Point, Erina 12-Aug-2016 16-Sep-2016 1 3200
2KTB-02 Leura, Medlow Bath, Katoomba 12-Aug-2016 16-Sep-2016 1 3400
3WGU-05 Drouin 19-Aug-2016 23-Sep-2016 1 2800
4NEW-06 Cranley, Gowrie Junction, Torrington, Wilsonton, Wilsonton Heights, Cotswold Hills Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3300
2SHH-01 Shell Cove, Shellharbour, Dunmore Jan-2017 Feb-2017 1 3000
2NRN-05 Narellan, Narellan Vale, Elderslie Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 2900
2PKE-05 Lake Heights, Berkeley Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3900
5GPC-05 Pooraka, Para Hills West Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3700
2PKE-02 Lake Heights, Warrawong, Cringila Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3700
3LOR-20 Lorne Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 2500
3RMS-01 Romsey, Lancefield Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 2700
3SUN-01 Sunbury Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3300
2NRN-03 Narellan Vale, Smeaton Grange, Harrington Park Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3800
4BDA-20 Babinda Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 800
4FRV-03 Koongal, Lakes Creek, Nerimbera, Frenchville Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 4300
4SAR-01 Sarina Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 1900
6RKH-05 Waikiki, Cooloongup Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3700
6RKH-03 East Rockingham, Hillman, Rockingham, Cooloongup Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3300
6RKH-06 Waikiki, Safety Bay Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3500
6RKH-08 Rockingham, Peron Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3900
7CLT-01 Campbell Town Jan-2017 Feb-2017 1 700
5GPC-07 Mawson Lakes Jan-2017 Feb-2017 1 3600
3WDG-01 Wodonga, Leneva Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 2700
3WAN-03 Wangaratta, Waldara Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 1700
4NEW-09 Drayton, Harristown, Darling Heights Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 3100
7EXE-01 Exeter, Gravelly Beach, Lanena, Rosevears, Swan Point, Blackwall Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 900
4BUD-05 Palmwoods Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 2100
4ROT-01 Rockhampton City, Depot Hill Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 1400
4RED-01 Mount Cotton, Carbrook Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 3000
4SHF-01 Trinity Beach, Trinity Park, Kewarra Beach Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 1900
7NOL-01 Magra, New Norfolk, Lawitta Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 2900
5BDT-20 Bordertown Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 1600
7BIC-01 Bicheno Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 900
5BRR-01 Berri Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 2500
6ARM-01 Byford, Darling Downs, Haynes, Hilbert, Mount Richon, Wungong, Brookdale Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 4000
6ARM-04 Forrestdale, Haynes, Seville Grove, Armadale Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 3600
3MOE-01 Trafalgar, Moe 22-Jul-2016 19-Aug-2016 1 2700
6MDR-10 Erskine 27-May-2016 24-Jun-2016 1 2500
3PTO-05 Portarlington 15-Jul-2016 12-Aug-2016 1 2200
3PTO-06 St Leonards 15-Jul-2016 12-Aug-2016 1 2800
3OCG-02 Breamlea, Barwon Heads 22-Jul-2016 19-Aug-2016 1 2800
3SHP-10 Kialla 29-Jul-2016 26-Aug-2016 1 1300
7BUI-03 East Cam, Ocean Vista, Park Grove, Parklands, Shorewell Park, Cooee Feb-2017 Mar-2017 1 2900
7ETD-02 Latrobe Feb-2017 Mar-2017 1 2000

Analysis based on NBN Co’s rollout schedule, reproduced by Telstra on the Telstra Wholesale website.  A variety of sources were checked to confirm this information.

Analysis: cross-bench and marginal seats benefit from 3 year NBN plan

Rollout numbers are higher in the densely populated areas held by cross-bench and marginal LNP MPs.

Writer’s note, 20th Oct: A point of clarification. While the data does show on an averaged party-margin basis that seats of a few cross-bench MPs have a higher number of homes in the 3 year plan, this does not suggest a direct correlation between the two. As stated previously in the article, albeit possibly not clearly enough, the seats held by the Greens, KAP and PUP are generally more densely populated and thus, would tend to have higher rollout figures in the fixed-line 3 year plan.

Analysis of the nbn construction plan released last week shows that on an averaged per-electorate basis, seats held by cross-bench MPs Adam Bandt (Greens), Bob Katter (Katter Australian Party), Clive Palmer (Palmer United Party) and conservative LNP seats has the greatest number of premises scheduled to commence construction over the next 3 years. However, the majority of these seats are coincidentally located in the more densely populated areas of Australia.

By party margin on a per-electorate basis

Between now and September 2018, Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne is expected to see 99,600 premises commence build.  Bob Katter’s electorate of Kennedy is expected to see 71,500 premises commence build, followed by Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax taking 68,200 premises into build by late 2018.

On a per-electorate basis (that is, the total number of premises divided by the number of seats held), marginal Liberal-National Party and Nationals Party seats come in at fourth and fifth with 59,233 and 56,300 premises expected to enter build respectively.

Party Margin classification Total planned fixed-line Electorates under this category Planned Fixed-line (per-electorate)*
GRN Cross bench  99,600 1  99,600
KAP Cross bench  71,500 1  71,500
PUP Cross bench  68,200 1  68,200
LNP Marginal  355,400 6  59,233
NAT Marginal  56,300 1  56,300
ALP Safe  836,200 15  55,747
LIB Fairly safe  493,500 9  54,833
LIB Safe  1,430,800 29  49,338
ALP Marginal  1,413,400 29  48,738
NAT Fairly safe  48,600 1  48,600
NAT Safe  331,500 7  47,357
LNP Safe  323,200 7  46,171
LNP Fairly safe  406,200 9  45,133
ALP Fairly safe  472,500 11  42,955
LIB Marginal  819,500 20  40,975
IND Cross bench  60,500 2  30,250

* the total number of premises in the plan to commence build (column 3), divided by the number of seats held within the party-margin category (column 4)

Graph showing planned premises in the 3 year rollout plan sorted by electorate margin, normalised by dividing the number of premises by the number of seats held
Graph showing planned premises in the 3 year rollout plan sorted by seat margin, normalised by dividing the number of premises by the number of seats held in each category

By electorate

However, the winning electorate is the electorate of Sydney – currently held by Labor MP Tanya Plibersek – with a total of 106,800 premises slated to commence build by late 2018.  This is followed closely by Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne (99,600), Labor MP Melissa Parke’s marginal seat of Fremantle (94,700) and Labor MP Clare O’Neil’s seat of Hothan (92,000).  The high number of premises in these areas is reflective of the dense population of these inner metropolitan centres.

Of the 150 federal electorates, only the electorate of Solomon – held by Country Liberal MP Natasha Griggs – has no fixed-line rollout plans.  The electorate covers the greater Darwin area where NBN rollout is mostly completed or already underway.

Electorate Name MP elected in 2013 Held by Margin classification Planned FTTx Premises Planned HFC premises Planned Fixed Line (total)
Sydney Tanya Plibersek ALP Safe 12,100 94,700 106,800
Melbourne Adam Bandt GRN Cross bench 24,800 74,800 99,600
Fremantle Melissa Parke ALP Marginal 89,500 5,200 94,700
Hotham Clare O’Neil ALP Fairly safe 6,000 86,000 92,000
Flinders Greg Hunt LIB Safe 90,900 0 90,900
Higgins Kelly O’Dwyer LIB Fairly safe 0 90,000 90,000
Bruce Alan Griffin ALP Marginal 29,500 54,600 84,100
Wakefield Nick Champion ALP Marginal 55,100 28,900 84,000
Leichhardt Warren Entsch LNP Marginal 63,500 19,600 83,100
Chisholm Anna Burke ALP Marginal 700 80,600 81,300
Moncrieff Steven Ciobo LNP Safe 17,600 63,600 81,200
Warringah Tony Abbott LIB Safe 18,000 60,000 78,000
Kooyong Josh Frydenberg LIB Safe 0 75,600 75,600
Batman David Feeney ALP Safe 1,700 73,200 74,900
Blaxland Jason Clare ALP Safe 4,300 69,900 74,200
Kingsford Smith Matt Thistlethwaite ALP Marginal 1,600 72,400 74,000
Corio Richard Marles ALP Fairly safe 72,800 0 72,800
Kennedy Bob Katter KAP Cross bench 59,100 12,400 71,500
Fairfax Clive Palmer PUP Cross bench 68,200 0 68,200
Stirling Michael Keenan LIB Safe 59,800 7,800 67,600
Deakin Michael Sukkar LIB Marginal 2,500 63,800 66,300
Cowan Luke Simpkins LIB Fairly safe 43,000 22,200 65,200
Adelaide Kate Ellis ALP Marginal 17,700 47,000 64,700
Jagajaga Jenny Macklin ALP Marginal 8,500 55,500 64,000
Forrest Nola Marino LIB Safe 63,500 0 63,500
Corangamite Sarah Henderson LIB Marginal 63,400 0 63,400
North Sydney Joe Hockey LIB Safe 7,900 55,500 63,400
Boothby Andrew Southcott LIB Fairly safe 25,600 37,000 62,600
Bendigo Lisa Chesters ALP Marginal 61,900 0 61,900
Lalor Joanne Ryan ALP Safe 32,500 29,300 61,800
Fraser Andrew Leigh ALP Safe 48,400 13,400 61,800
McEwen Rob Mitchell ALP Marginal 61,500 0 61,500
Bowman Andrew Laming LNP Fairly safe 36,100 25,000 61,100
Dunkley Bruce Billson LIB Marginal 36,100 24,100 60,200
Port Adelaide Mark Butler ALP Safe 51,600 8,200 59,800
Greenway Michelle Rowland ALP Marginal 23,300 36,000 59,300
Bradfield Paul Fletcher LIB Safe 0 58,900 58,900
Petrie Luke Howarth LNP Marginal 17,200 41,600 58,800
Gellibrand Tim Watts ALP Safe 14,100 44,700 58,800
Gorton Brendan O’Connor ALP Safe 24,900 33,400 58,300
Chifley Ed Husic ALP Safe 9,000 49,000 58,000
Isaacs Mark Dreyfus ALP Marginal 21,300 36,400 57,700
Fisher Mal Brough LNP Fairly safe 57,600 0 57,600
La Trobe Jason Wood LIB Marginal 43,500 13,900 57,400
Mitchell Alex Hawke LIB Safe 26,800 30,000 56,800
Gippsland Darren Chester NAT Safe 56,400 0 56,400
Page Kevin Hogan NAT Marginal 56,300 0 56,300
Richmond Justine Elliot ALP Marginal 55,900 0 55,900
Canning Don Randall LIB Safe 55,800 0 55,800
Farrer Sussan Ley LIB Safe 55,700 0 55,700
Gilmore Ann Sudmalis LIB Marginal 55,200 0 55,200
Tangney Dennis Jensen LIB Safe 44,100 11,100 55,200
Paterson Bob Baldwin LIB Fairly safe 55,100 0 55,100
Bonner Ross Vasta LNP Marginal 8,400 46,600 55,000
Capricornia Michelle Landry LNP Marginal 54,800 0 54,800
Forde Bert van Manen LNP Marginal 28,800 25,800 54,600
Barton Nickolas Varvaris LIB Marginal 1,700 52,800 54,500
Cook Scott Morrison LIB Safe 5,900 48,200 54,100
Dickson Peter Dutton LNP Fairly safe 20,200 33,500 53,700
New England Barnaby Joyce NAT Safe 39,800 13,900 53,700
Calare John Cobb NAT Safe 53,500 0 53,500
Moreton Graham Perrett ALP Marginal 5,000 47,600 52,600
Throsby Stephen Jones ALP Fairly safe 52,500 0 52,500
O’Connor Rick Wilson LIB Marginal 52,300 0 52,300
Barker Tony Pasin LIB Safe 51,700 0 51,700
Riverina Michael McCormack NAT Safe 51,600 0 51,600
Sturt Christopher Pyne LIB Safe 18,800 32,200 51,000
Hunter Joel Fitzgibbon ALP Marginal 50,800 0 50,800
Hume Angus Taylor LIB Safe 49,000 1,600 50,600
Mayo Jamie Briggs LIB Safe 45,900 4,700 50,600
Dawson George Christensen LNP Fairly safe 50,300 0 50,300
Kingston Amanda Rishworth ALP Fairly safe 47,100 3,100 50,200
Indi Cathy McGowan IND Cross bench 50,100 0 50,100
Wills Kelvin Thomson ALP Safe 6,100 43,700 49,800
Durack Melissa Price LIB Marginal 49,500 0 49,500
Brisbane Teresa Gambaro LNP Marginal 4,000 45,100 49,100
Fadden Stuart Robert LNP Safe 23,100 26,000 49,100
Grey Rowan Ramsey LIB Safe 48,900 0 48,900
Reid Craig Laundy LIB Marginal 12,800 36,000 48,800
Mallee Andrew Broad NAT Fairly safe 48,600 0 48,600
Pearce Christian Porter LIB Fairly safe 43,000 5,400 48,400
Bennelong John Alexander LIB Fairly safe 2,600 44,800 47,400
Aston Alan Tudge LIB Fairly safe 2,200 44,800 47,000
Ryan Jane Prentice LNP Fairly safe 13,000 34,000 47,000
McMillan Russell Broadbent LIB Safe 46,900 0 46,900
Grayndler Anthony Albanese ALP Safe 1,200 45,400 46,600
Eden-Monaro Peter Hendy LIB Marginal 46,500 0 46,500
Flynn Ken O’Dowd LNP Fairly safe 45,300 0 45,300
Wannon Dan Tehan LIB Safe 45,300 0 45,300
Perth Alannah MacTiernan ALP Marginal 45,200 0 45,200
Oxley Bernie Ripoll ALP Marginal 23,800 21,300 45,100
Shortland Jill Hall ALP Fairly safe 44,900 0 44,900
Lyne David Gillespie NAT Safe 44,600 0 44,600
Brand Gary Gray ALP Marginal 44,600 0 44,600
Makin Tony Zappia ALP Marginal 28,600 15,900 44,500
Calwell Maria Vamvakinou ALP Safe 29,800 14,300 44,100
Hinkler Keith Pitt LNP Fairly safe 43,500 0 43,500
McPherson Karen Andrews LNP Safe 12,600 30,600 43,200
Parkes Mark Coulton NAT Safe 43,200 0 43,200
Newcastle Sharon Claydon ALP Fairly safe 43,200 0 43,200
Maranoa Bruce Scott LNP Safe 42,100 0 42,100
Casey Tony Smith LIB Fairly safe 25,400 16,600 42,000
Braddon Brett Whiteley LIB Marginal 39,900 0 39,900
Wentworth Malcolm Turnbull LIB Safe 0 39,600 39,600
Banks David Coleman LIB Marginal 1,100 38,300 39,400
Curtin Julie Bishop LIB Safe 1,500 37,100 38,600
Holt Anthony Byrne ALP Fairly safe 19,200 19,300 38,500
Rankin Jim Chalmers ALP Marginal 4,700 33,100 37,800
McMahon Chris Bowen ALP Marginal 8,000 29,200 37,200
Wide Bay Warren Truss LNP Safe 36,500 0 36,500
Groom Ian Macfarlane LNP Safe 35,900 0 35,900
Swan Steve Irons LIB Fairly safe 33,300 2,500 35,800
Canberra Gai Brodtmann ALP Fairly safe 35,400 0 35,400
Macarthur Russell Matheson LIB Safe 35,200 0 35,200
Wright Scott Buchholz LNP Safe 35,200 0 35,200
Hasluck Ken Wyatt LIB Marginal 34,700 0 34,700
Murray Sharman Stone LIB Safe 34,700 0 34,700
Moore Ian Goodenough LIB Safe 9,900 24,600 34,500
Goldstein Andrew Robb LIB Safe 0 34,300 34,300
Blair Shayne Neumann ALP Marginal 14,400 18,400 32,800
Hindmarsh Matt Williams LIB Marginal 6,100 24,100 30,200
Griffith Kevin Rudd ALP Marginal 7,400 22,800 30,200
Maribyrnong Bill Shorten ALP Safe 1,600 28,200 29,800
Lilley Wayne Swan ALP Marginal 3,600 25,800 29,400
Cowper Luke Hartsuyker NAT Safe 28,500 0 28,500
Robertson Lucy Wicks LIB Marginal 28,400 0 28,400
Mackellar Bronwyn Bishop LIB Safe 12,100 15,800 27,900
Melbourne Ports Michael Danby ALP Marginal 3,700 24,000 27,700
Scullin Andrew Giles ALP Safe 12,900 14,800 27,700
Macquarie Louise Markus LIB Marginal 27,000 0 27,000
Lyons Eric Hutchinson LIB Marginal 26,900 0 26,900
Lindsay Fiona Scott LIB Marginal 5,100 21,500 26,600
Ballarat Catherine King ALP Marginal 25,200 0 25,200
Hughes Craig Kelly LIB Safe 5,000 19,900 24,900
Herbert Ewen Jones LNP Fairly safe 24,600 0 24,600
Werriwa Laurie Ferguson ALP Marginal 8,300 15,900 24,200
Berowra Philip Ruddock LIB Safe 7,200 16,600 23,800
Fowler Chris Hayes ALP Safe 9,800 14,000 23,800
Longman Wyatt Roy LNP Fairly safe 23,100 0 23,100
Cunningham Sharon Bird ALP Fairly safe 20,900 0 20,900
Parramatta Julie Owens ALP Marginal 3,600 13,300 16,900
Menzies Kevin Andrews LIB Safe 0 16,800 16,800
Franklin Julie Collins ALP Marginal 14,800 0 14,800
Charlton Pat Conroy ALP Fairly safe 12,900 0 12,900
Lingiari Warren Snowdon ALP Marginal 11,300 0 11,300
Denison Andrew Wilkie IND Cross bench 10,400 0 10,400
Watson Tony Burke ALP Fairly safe 3,500 5,700 9,200
Dobell Karen McNamara LIB Marginal 8,300 0 8,300
Bass Andrew Nikolic LIB Marginal 4,000 0 4,000
Solomon Natasha Griggs CLP Marginal 0 0 0

Could we have gone all fibre rather than this G.Fast talk?

Did we miss an opportunity to get an FTTP+HFC rollout? Figures from NBN’s stragegic review suggest a two-stage FTTN to G.Fast upgrade could now cost more than if we just stuck with FTTP

Even before they’ve switched on a single Fibre to the Node customer — nbn, the company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, has been busy spruiking their plans to trial and eventually upgrade Fibre to the Node to G.Fast technology to the media.

However, acccording to estimates made in the company’s Strategic Review, building the Fibre to the Node network now and upgrading to Fibre to the Distribution Point (FTTdp) using G.Fast technology would have saved a mere $2 billion dollars compared with a “radically redesigned” Fibre to the Premises rollout.  Since then, blowouts in the Fibre to the Node rollout would have surpassed the said savings of $2 billion dollars.

Fibre to the Node: blowouts

The company had straight-out refused to publish a raw Fibre to the Node cost-per-premises figure in their Strategic Review. However, on page 101 of the Strategic Review, the company estimated that it will cost around $2 billion dollars to roll out 3.6 million premises using Fibre to the Node architecture.  This equates to approximately $555 — $833 per premises (assuming range of $2 — $3 billion dollars divided by 3.6 million premises).

The FTTdp upgrade cost breakdown in the Strategic Review
The FTTdp upgrade cost breakdown in the Strategic Review

According to the latest 2016 corporate plan, this cost has blown out to $1,600 per premises or a net increase of $767 — $1,045 per premises (excluding infrastructure lease which was not attributed to CPP in original calculations).

Current cost-per-premises projections as stated NBN's 2016 corporate plan
Current cost-per-premises projections as stated NBN’s 2016 corporate plan

nbn has also increased the FTTN/B/dp footprint from 3.6 million premises to 4.5 million.  From Fibre to the Node cost per premises alone, this has attributed to a net blowout of between $3.5 to $4.7 billion dollars from Strategic Review cost estimates — potentially overriding the savings of $2 billion envisaged in the VDSL–G.Fast upgrade path.

Fibre to the Premises: better than expected?

The issue with this is of course, comparing FTTN costs with costs that we’d never know.  We will never know exactly how much a “radically redesigned” FTTP rollout would have costed — but we can make estimates:

Comparing NBN’s estimates for Fibre to the Premises (Revised Outlook) in the Strategic Review with current Fibre to the Premises, figures shows they had over-estimated the capital expenditure of the FTTP rollout by about 11%: ~$4,100 in the Strategic Review ($1,997 for LNDN plus $2,100 for the activation, equating to $4,097 — see pages 62 and 64 of SR) vs $3,700 in the 2016 Corporate Plan.  This suggests better-than-expected costs in the Fibre to the Premises rollout costs.

But it’s too late anyway

But unfortunately, the company has already invested billions into developing the so-called Multi-Technology Mix and has a task to rollout Fibre to the Node thanks much to Government policy.  These are costs that taxpayers will never be able to recover, meaning we may have missed another opportunity to rollout FTTP in the majority of the now-FTTN footprint.

As the cost of the copper-based network increases, the comparative investment in those technologies become less attractive.  Speed and capacity upgrades require installing more active equipment in the field and also extending fibre closer to the home. Thus, incremental upgrades and ongoing operating expenses on a copper-based broadband network is far greater than those on a fibre-based network where only tail equipment has to be swapped out.

If the savings in building a copper-based network are relatively small in initial capital expenditure — eventually, the economics will reverse and bite back.

Since Fibre to the Node will now span the majority of the network, the only logical upgrade path for those areas would now be FTTdp because of all the capital costs sunken into rolling out FTTN.  But don’t think for a second that it will be actually cheaper than rolling out fibre all the way to the home in the first place.

In summary, if the Strategic Review’s figures are to be trusted, we may have missed yet another opportunity to get a FTTP network, albeit “radically redesigned” in nbn‘s vernacular.  Calculations suggest it could have cost less than what the current FTTN rollout plus a G.Fast upgrade in 2020 will cost.  Plus, the company has also proved at almost every instant that they had underestimated any non-FTTP costs in the strategic review and helpfully inflated any FTTP costs higher than actuals.

What are your thoughts?  The analysis, of course, makes assumptions based on the available data.  I think it’s a real pity how it seems time after time, taxpayer’s money ends up being wasted based on a false premise in a rushed report.

NBN Fibre to the Node Trial at Umina Beach

Initial NBN FTTN areas delayed to test processes

Last week, I reported that the activation of around 164 thousand NBN Fibre to the Node premises had been delayed by up to 4 months.

nbn, the company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, confirmed the delay to technology publication Delimiter.  The company says they have deliberately chosen a slower activation approach as it “allows us to test our own processes and systems and to identify any issues along the way.”

I suggest you read Renai’s article to get the full spiel from nbn™.

Inside an NBN node at Umina Beach

Analysis: 164k NBN Fibre to the Node premises delayed

Analysis of nbn’s monthly rollout schedule has revealed that the ambitious Fibre to the Node switch-on has been delayed for hundreds of thousands of premises by up to four months.

According to rollout information produced by the company rolling out the National Broadband Network, the ready for service dates for around 164 thousand premises in the NBN Fibre to the Node trial area have been delayed since the company’s estimates in May.

In May, the company estimated that 37,200 FTTN premises will be declared “Ready for Service” in September 2015 with another 35,200 premises added in October.  However, the latest monthly ready for service plan released by the company last week shows a mere 2,100 premises will be declared “Ready for Service” in September.  Delays continue into October, with only 9,600 premises expected to be activated in that month.

In total around 164 thousand premises have been pushed back by up to 4 months.

A full list of areas delayed can be found at the bottom of the post.

NBN's FTTN Expected Ready For Service dates are slipping
Graph: NBN’s FTTN Expected Ready For Service dates are slipping.
(Blue bars show estimates in May, orange bars show estimates in August.)

The raw data:

Table showing the change in the number of FTTN premises expected to be declared “Ready for Service” by nbn from May to August:

RFS Month May Rollout Schedule
Aug Rollout Schedule
Net change
Sep 2015 37.2 2.1 -35.1
Oct 2015 35.2 9.6 -25.6
Nov 2015 30 36.1 6.1
Dec 2015 28.5 39.2 10.7
Jan 2016 26 35.8 9.8
Feb 2016 47.2 53.9 6.7
Mar 2016 0.0 48.5 48.5

Table showing the full list of Service Area Modules (SAMs) where nbn has delayed the Ready for Service dates:

SAM Identifier May Rollout Schedule Aug Rollout Schedule Approx. # of premises Indicative localities
2BLT-03 Sep-2015 20-Nov-2015 2200 Tingira Heights, Windale, Mount Hutton
2BLT-07 Sep-2015 06-Nov-2015 3000 Floraville, Belmont North
2BLT-08 Sep-2015 02-Oct-2015 2200 Belmont
2BLT-01 Sep-2015 20-Nov-2015 2400 Warners Bay
2BLT-02 Sep-2015 20-Nov-2015 3200 Warners Bay, Mount Hutton
2GRK-01 Sep-2015 16-Oct-2015 4300 Kanwal, Tuggerawong, Wadalba, Wyongah, Hamlyn Terrace
2GRK-02 Sep-2015 23-Oct-2015 3100 Hamlyn Terrace, Warnervale, Woongarrah, Charmhaven
2GRK-03 Sep-2015 06-Nov-2015 3700 Gorokan, Lake Haven, Charmhaven
2GRK-04 Sep-2015 13-Nov-2015 4000 Gorokan, Lake Haven, Toukley, Canton Beach
2GRK-05 Sep-2015 13-Nov-2015 4000 Canton Beach, Norah Head, Noraville, Toukley, Budgewoi Peninsula
2GRK-06 Sep-2015 13-Nov-2015 3000 Kanwal, Warnervale, Hamlyn Terrace
2BLT-06 Oct-2015 27-Nov-2015 2500 Valentine, Croudace Bay
2BLT-04 Oct-2015 27-Nov-2015 2600 Windale, Jewells
2BLT-05 Oct-2015 27-Nov-2015 2900 Floraville, Valentine, Eleebana
4BBE-02 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 3100 Kalkie, Rubyanna, Bundaberg East
4BBE-08 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 2000 Bundaberg South, Bundaberg Central
4BBE-09 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 3500 Kensington, Norville, Svensson Heights, Bundaberg West
2BLT-10 Oct-2015 06-Nov-2015 2600 Blacksmiths, Marks Point, Pelican, Belmont South
4BBE-03 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 2500 Walkervale, Norville
4BBE-04 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 3100 Thabeban, Walkervale, Avenell Heights
4BBE-05 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 3300 Avenell Heights, Bundaberg South, Kepnock, Ashfield
4BBE-06 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 2900 Millbank, Svensson Heights, Bundaberg West
4BBE-01 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 1000 Bundaberg Central
4BBE-07 Oct-2015 Dec-2015 3200 Gooburrum, Bundaberg North
2BLR-01 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 1600 Cameron Park
2BLR-02 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 2700 Cameron Park, Edgeworth, Holmesville, Killingworth, Barnsley
2BLR-03 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 3600 Booragul, Marmong Point, Speers Point, Teralba, Boolaroo
2BLR-04 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 2700 Boolaroo, Speers Point, Argenton
4GYM-01 Nov-2015 Mar-2016 2300 Gympie
2BLR-05 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 2800 Edgeworth, Argenton
2BLR-06 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 1200 Seahampton, West Wallsend, Minmi
2MRS-02 Nov-2015 Mar-2016 3800 Bonnells Bay, Brightwaters, Mirrabooka, Morisset Park, Silverwater, Sunshine, Windermere Park, Yarrawonga Park, Balcolyn
2MRS-03 Nov-2015 Mar-2016 3100 Morisset, Cooranbong
4GYM-02 Nov-2015 Mar-2016 3400 Southside, Jones Hill
2MRS-01 Nov-2015 Mar-2016 2800 Dora Creek, Morisset, Bonnells Bay
2WOY-01 Dec-2015 Feb-2016 500 Umina Beach
2WOY-03 Dec-2015 Feb-2016 3100 Umina Beach, Ettalong Beach
2HAM-10 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 1800 Hamilton, Broadmeadow
2WOY-04 Dec-2015 Feb-2016 2900 Booker Bay, Daleys Point, Ettalong Beach, St Huberts Island, Blackwall
2HAM-01 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 3100 Kooragang, Tighes Hill, Carrington
2WOY-05 Dec-2015 Feb-2016 2100 Woy Woy, Blackwall
2WOY-06 Dec-2015 Feb-2016 2600 Umina Beach
2HAM-13 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 1400 Hamilton East, Newcastle West, Wickham, Hamilton
2HAM-14 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 1600 Newcastle West, The Junction, Hamilton East
2WOY-08 Dec-2015 Feb-2016 3100 Kincumber, Yattalunga, Green Point
2HAM-02 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 4100 Newcastle West, Newcastle
2HAM-05 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 2200 Cooks Hill, Newcastle West, The Hill, Bar Beach
2WOY-02 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 2600 Pearl Beach, Umina Beach, Patonga
2WOY-10 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 1700 Killcare, Killcare Heights, Pretty Beach, Wagstaffe, Box Head
2WOY-11 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 2100 Empire Bay, Bensville
2WOY-12 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 3000 Saratoga, Davistown
2WOY-13 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 1900 Woy Woy, Koolewong
4BRI-01 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 2900 Woorim, Bongaree
4BRI-02 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 3300 Bongaree
4WRN-01 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 1700 Brendale
4BRI-03 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 2700 Bellara, Banksia Beach
4BRI-04 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 2800 Welsby, White Patch, Banksia Beach
4WRN-04 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 2500 Lawnton
4WRN-05 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 3500 Joyner, Lawnton, Warner, Bray Park
4WRN-07 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 1500 Warner, Brendale
4WRN-06 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 2900 Joyner, Warner, Cashmere
Fibre pit hauling

83k premises dropped from July NBN rollout plan

The devil is in the detail – July’s quarterly construction plan shows 83k premises removed from the nbn rollout plan.

Analysis of the 18 month rollout plan released in July by nbn has shown that around 83,500 premises previously listed as being in the 18 month plan had been removed.

The areas removed were slated for a Fibre to the Node rollout to commence during 2016 and include the areas of and surrounding:

New South Wales

  • Cessnock/Bellbird
  • Darlington Point


  • Brassall
  • Currumbin
  • Helidon
  • Magnetic Island
  • Samford
  • Gold Coast/Tweed Heads
  • Mount Crosby
  • Sunshine Coast/Noosa
  • Pittsworth
  • Robina

South Australia

  • Flinders


  • Queenstown
  • Rosebery
  • Zeehan

(for more information, see full table at the end of the post)

At the start of July, the company responsible for building the National Broadband Network announced in a media release that an additional 200,000 premises were added to the nbn rollout.

From initial calculations, this figure was derived from the total number of premises that were added to the rollout plan and does not take into account the number of premises removed from the plan.

If true, this means that the net increase in number of premises expected to commence construction within 18 months would be around 40% less than announced (from 200,000 to around 120,000 premises) in the July press release.


NBN Fibre to the Node Trial at Umina Beach

It’s official: MTM takes over

Today, nbn™ updated their rollout map to include new areas where build preparation commenced last month.  As predicted on jxeeno blog last month, this month marks a milestone in the company’s implementation of the Multi-Technology Mix rollout methodology with all 152 of the new Serving Area Modules added set to MTM.

None of the areas added this month will use purely Fibre to the Premises – however, it is expected parts of some Serving Area Modules may use FTTP where economically feasible as part of the company’s established MTM deployment principles.  The majority of premises in the listed areas are expected to get a Fibre to the Node or Fibre to the Basement connection.  A further breakdown of technology-by-area or premises is not available on the company’s public website.

This comes as the company revealed that customers in the FTTN footprint will only be guaranteed 12/1 mbps during the transition period while ADSL services still exist on the copper network.


nbn™ proposes satellite fees: rural customers lose out again

nbn™ has clarified some of the contents of the original post. The post has been updated in light of this new information.

As part of nbn™’s industry consultation on the Long Term Satellite Service launching next year, the company released a list of proposed charges for the satellite service to Access Seekers (service providers) for feedback last Friday. A summary table was released to the public this morning.

The table lists a number of new proposed charges, including a reactivation fee, installation, installer travel costs and a range of late or missed appointment fees.

Proposed incidentals charges for NBN Long Term Satellite
Table 2: showing some proposed charges for the NBN Long Term Satellite

Under the proposed charges, the company will charge the customer through the internet service provider an installation fee based on the distance the installer has to travel (charged at $1.40/km) and also pay an hourly rate for the time they spent driving and installing the equipment (at $98/hour). This is in contrast with nbn™’s current cost structure for the Fixed Wireless and Fixed-Line products where the installation is free for the customer.


NBN Co culls more areas from rollout map

Following a map update yesterday, NBN Co has removed approximately 58 thousand premises that were previously slated for a Fibre to the Premises rollout from its rollout map.

These premises, spread across 22 Serving Area Modules (SAMs) in NSW, VIC, QLD, SA and WA, were all in the Build Preparation phase where Telstra’s pit and pipe remediation works commences and detailed designs of the SAM being finalised with NBN Co’s construction partners.

The majority of these SAMs are covered by Telstra’s or Optus’ HFC networks, which NBN Co is expected to acquire, upgrade and integrate into the National Broadband Network as part of their so-called “Multi-Technology Mix” rollout strategy. It is expected that most of these areas will now be delayed until the HFC deals are finalised and rollout commences.

However, there are also some areas such as Dubbo (2DBB-06) that are not covered by the HFC networks but were still removed from the map.

Update 15/04/15: According to Daily Liberal, 2DBB-06 was delayed due to an “over ambitious” rollout sequencing by NBN Co.

A full list of SAMs removed, their coverage localities and the approximate number of premises covered by each SAM can be found below. Dave Cooper has also collated and compared the maps of the areas removed. He has tweeted GIFs of the before and after SAMs removed. They can be found below the opinion piece 🙂

SAM ID Localities Approx. # of Premises
2BLK-08 Doonside 2,700
2DBB-06 Dubbo 2,400
2CAM-03 Campsie 2,700
2CAM-04 Campsie, Belfield 2,800
2HOM-05 Strathfield South, Belfield 2,800
2HOM-06 Greenacre 2,600
2LIV-06 Warwick Farm 2,600
2LIV-09 Moorebank 2,600
3FSR-02 West Footscray, Footscray 2,400
3FSR-11 Footscray 2,400
3KEY-06 Keysborough 2,600
3WER-04 Wyndham Vale 2,400
4AAR-04 Sunnybank Hills, Runcorn 2,800
4AAR-05 Karawatha, Runcorn, Stretton, Calamvale 2,800
4APL-05 Carseldine, Bridgeman Downs 2,400
4BDB-04 New Chum, Redbank, Collingwood Park 1,900
4NDG-04 Nundah, Northgate 3,700
4NDG-05 Wavell Heights, Nundah 2,900
4NDG-06 Virginia, Wavell Heights, Northgate 2,900
5MOD-08 Redwood Park, Modbury Heights 2,300
6APP-05 Winthrop 2,600
6SPT-05 Como 2,700
Total 58,000

Opinion: the good, and the bad

(opinion) It’s not the first time that NBN Co has removed areas from the rollout map, and it won’t be the last. But it’s another significant reduction of premises covered by the Fibre network.

The good news is that NBN Co is deciding to make better use of tax payers money in achieving its expectations (as outlined in the Statement of Expectations, which only requires min. 25 mbps, remember!). Once DOCSIS 3.1 is rolled out, the HFC network upgrade will be vastly better than current HFC services and indeed — should be able to deliver speeds comparable to the current FTTP network.

The sad news is that you won’t get fibre (but it’s okay!) and you probably won’t get faster internet for some time yet… at least until the HFC deal is finalised and the upgrades are done.

It is disappointing to see NBN Co add these areas, knowing the HFC deal was ahead, then backtrack and remove these areas silently. No doubt, there will be many disappointed people around Australia that their beloved fibre connections will no longer come to them.

I believe that, as hard as it may be, NBN Co has a role in informing these communities that they were removed from the map for a reason and not to fear. To have them on as “build preparation has commenced”, then suddenly remove them because of a change in policy that was known months in advanced will only cause confusion and angst in the community.