Rollout numbers are higher in the densely populated areas held by cross-bench and marginal LNP MPs.
Writer’s note, 20th Oct: A point of clarification. While the data does show on an averaged party-margin basis that seats of a few cross-bench MPs have a higher number of homes in the 3 year plan, this does not suggest a direct correlation between the two. As stated previously in the article, albeit possibly not clearly enough, the seats held by the Greens, KAP and PUP are generally more densely populated and thus, would tend to have higher rollout figures in the fixed-line 3 year plan.
Analysis of the nbn construction plan released last week shows that on an averaged per-electorate basis, seats held by cross-bench MPs Adam Bandt (Greens), Bob Katter (Katter Australian Party), Clive Palmer (Palmer United Party) and conservative LNP seats has the greatest number of premises scheduled to commence construction over the next 3 years. However, the majority of these seats are coincidentally located in the more densely populated areas of Australia.
By party margin on a per-electorate basis
Between now and September 2018, Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne is expected to see 99,600 premises commence build. Bob Katter’s electorate of Kennedy is expected to see 71,500 premises commence build, followed by Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax taking 68,200 premises into build by late 2018.
On a per-electorate basis (that is, the total number of premises divided by the number of seats held), marginal Liberal-National Party and Nationals Party seats come in at fourth and fifth with 59,233 and 56,300 premises expected to enter build respectively.
| Party | Margin classification | Total planned fixed-line | Electorates under this category | Planned Fixed-line (per-electorate)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRN | Cross bench | 99,600 | 1 | 99,600 |
| KAP | Cross bench | 71,500 | 1 | 71,500 |
| PUP | Cross bench | 68,200 | 1 | 68,200 |
| LNP | Marginal | 355,400 | 6 | 59,233 |
| NAT | Marginal | 56,300 | 1 | 56,300 |
| ALP | Safe | 836,200 | 15 | 55,747 |
| LIB | Fairly safe | 493,500 | 9 | 54,833 |
| LIB | Safe | 1,430,800 | 29 | 49,338 |
| ALP | Marginal | 1,413,400 | 29 | 48,738 |
| NAT | Fairly safe | 48,600 | 1 | 48,600 |
| NAT | Safe | 331,500 | 7 | 47,357 |
| LNP | Safe | 323,200 | 7 | 46,171 |
| LNP | Fairly safe | 406,200 | 9 | 45,133 |
| ALP | Fairly safe | 472,500 | 11 | 42,955 |
| LIB | Marginal | 819,500 | 20 | 40,975 |
| IND | Cross bench | 60,500 | 2 | 30,250 |
* the total number of premises in the plan to commence build (column 3), divided by the number of seats held within the party-margin category (column 4)
By electorate
However, the winning electorate is the electorate of Sydney – currently held by Labor MP Tanya Plibersek – with a total of 106,800 premises slated to commence build by late 2018. This is followed closely by Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne (99,600), Labor MP Melissa Parke’s marginal seat of Fremantle (94,700) and Labor MP Clare O’Neil’s seat of Hothan (92,000). The high number of premises in these areas is reflective of the dense population of these inner metropolitan centres.
Of the 150 federal electorates, only the electorate of Solomon – held by Country Liberal MP Natasha Griggs – has no fixed-line rollout plans. The electorate covers the greater Darwin area where NBN rollout is mostly completed or already underway.
| Electorate Name | MP elected in 2013 | Held by | Margin classification | Planned FTTx Premises | Planned HFC premises | Planned Fixed Line (total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Tanya Plibersek | ALP | Safe | 12,100 | 94,700 | 106,800 |
| Melbourne | Adam Bandt | GRN | Cross bench | 24,800 | 74,800 | 99,600 |
| Fremantle | Melissa Parke | ALP | Marginal | 89,500 | 5,200 | 94,700 |
| Hotham | Clare O’Neil | ALP | Fairly safe | 6,000 | 86,000 | 92,000 |
| Flinders | Greg Hunt | LIB | Safe | 90,900 | 0 | 90,900 |
| Higgins | Kelly O’Dwyer | LIB | Fairly safe | 0 | 90,000 | 90,000 |
| Bruce | Alan Griffin | ALP | Marginal | 29,500 | 54,600 | 84,100 |
| Wakefield | Nick Champion | ALP | Marginal | 55,100 | 28,900 | 84,000 |
| Leichhardt | Warren Entsch | LNP | Marginal | 63,500 | 19,600 | 83,100 |
| Chisholm | Anna Burke | ALP | Marginal | 700 | 80,600 | 81,300 |
| Moncrieff | Steven Ciobo | LNP | Safe | 17,600 | 63,600 | 81,200 |
| Warringah | Tony Abbott | LIB | Safe | 18,000 | 60,000 | 78,000 |
| Kooyong | Josh Frydenberg | LIB | Safe | 0 | 75,600 | 75,600 |
| Batman | David Feeney | ALP | Safe | 1,700 | 73,200 | 74,900 |
| Blaxland | Jason Clare | ALP | Safe | 4,300 | 69,900 | 74,200 |
| Kingsford Smith | Matt Thistlethwaite | ALP | Marginal | 1,600 | 72,400 | 74,000 |
| Corio | Richard Marles | ALP | Fairly safe | 72,800 | 0 | 72,800 |
| Kennedy | Bob Katter | KAP | Cross bench | 59,100 | 12,400 | 71,500 |
| Fairfax | Clive Palmer | PUP | Cross bench | 68,200 | 0 | 68,200 |
| Stirling | Michael Keenan | LIB | Safe | 59,800 | 7,800 | 67,600 |
| Deakin | Michael Sukkar | LIB | Marginal | 2,500 | 63,800 | 66,300 |
| Cowan | Luke Simpkins | LIB | Fairly safe | 43,000 | 22,200 | 65,200 |
| Adelaide | Kate Ellis | ALP | Marginal | 17,700 | 47,000 | 64,700 |
| Jagajaga | Jenny Macklin | ALP | Marginal | 8,500 | 55,500 | 64,000 |
| Forrest | Nola Marino | LIB | Safe | 63,500 | 0 | 63,500 |
| Corangamite | Sarah Henderson | LIB | Marginal | 63,400 | 0 | 63,400 |
| North Sydney | Joe Hockey | LIB | Safe | 7,900 | 55,500 | 63,400 |
| Boothby | Andrew Southcott | LIB | Fairly safe | 25,600 | 37,000 | 62,600 |
| Bendigo | Lisa Chesters | ALP | Marginal | 61,900 | 0 | 61,900 |
| Lalor | Joanne Ryan | ALP | Safe | 32,500 | 29,300 | 61,800 |
| Fraser | Andrew Leigh | ALP | Safe | 48,400 | 13,400 | 61,800 |
| McEwen | Rob Mitchell | ALP | Marginal | 61,500 | 0 | 61,500 |
| Bowman | Andrew Laming | LNP | Fairly safe | 36,100 | 25,000 | 61,100 |
| Dunkley | Bruce Billson | LIB | Marginal | 36,100 | 24,100 | 60,200 |
| Port Adelaide | Mark Butler | ALP | Safe | 51,600 | 8,200 | 59,800 |
| Greenway | Michelle Rowland | ALP | Marginal | 23,300 | 36,000 | 59,300 |
| Bradfield | Paul Fletcher | LIB | Safe | 0 | 58,900 | 58,900 |
| Petrie | Luke Howarth | LNP | Marginal | 17,200 | 41,600 | 58,800 |
| Gellibrand | Tim Watts | ALP | Safe | 14,100 | 44,700 | 58,800 |
| Gorton | Brendan O’Connor | ALP | Safe | 24,900 | 33,400 | 58,300 |
| Chifley | Ed Husic | ALP | Safe | 9,000 | 49,000 | 58,000 |
| Isaacs | Mark Dreyfus | ALP | Marginal | 21,300 | 36,400 | 57,700 |
| Fisher | Mal Brough | LNP | Fairly safe | 57,600 | 0 | 57,600 |
| La Trobe | Jason Wood | LIB | Marginal | 43,500 | 13,900 | 57,400 |
| Mitchell | Alex Hawke | LIB | Safe | 26,800 | 30,000 | 56,800 |
| Gippsland | Darren Chester | NAT | Safe | 56,400 | 0 | 56,400 |
| Page | Kevin Hogan | NAT | Marginal | 56,300 | 0 | 56,300 |
| Richmond | Justine Elliot | ALP | Marginal | 55,900 | 0 | 55,900 |
| Canning | Don Randall | LIB | Safe | 55,800 | 0 | 55,800 |
| Farrer | Sussan Ley | LIB | Safe | 55,700 | 0 | 55,700 |
| Gilmore | Ann Sudmalis | LIB | Marginal | 55,200 | 0 | 55,200 |
| Tangney | Dennis Jensen | LIB | Safe | 44,100 | 11,100 | 55,200 |
| Paterson | Bob Baldwin | LIB | Fairly safe | 55,100 | 0 | 55,100 |
| Bonner | Ross Vasta | LNP | Marginal | 8,400 | 46,600 | 55,000 |
| Capricornia | Michelle Landry | LNP | Marginal | 54,800 | 0 | 54,800 |
| Forde | Bert van Manen | LNP | Marginal | 28,800 | 25,800 | 54,600 |
| Barton | Nickolas Varvaris | LIB | Marginal | 1,700 | 52,800 | 54,500 |
| Cook | Scott Morrison | LIB | Safe | 5,900 | 48,200 | 54,100 |
| Dickson | Peter Dutton | LNP | Fairly safe | 20,200 | 33,500 | 53,700 |
| New England | Barnaby Joyce | NAT | Safe | 39,800 | 13,900 | 53,700 |
| Calare | John Cobb | NAT | Safe | 53,500 | 0 | 53,500 |
| Moreton | Graham Perrett | ALP | Marginal | 5,000 | 47,600 | 52,600 |
| Throsby | Stephen Jones | ALP | Fairly safe | 52,500 | 0 | 52,500 |
| O’Connor | Rick Wilson | LIB | Marginal | 52,300 | 0 | 52,300 |
| Barker | Tony Pasin | LIB | Safe | 51,700 | 0 | 51,700 |
| Riverina | Michael McCormack | NAT | Safe | 51,600 | 0 | 51,600 |
| Sturt | Christopher Pyne | LIB | Safe | 18,800 | 32,200 | 51,000 |
| Hunter | Joel Fitzgibbon | ALP | Marginal | 50,800 | 0 | 50,800 |
| Hume | Angus Taylor | LIB | Safe | 49,000 | 1,600 | 50,600 |
| Mayo | Jamie Briggs | LIB | Safe | 45,900 | 4,700 | 50,600 |
| Dawson | George Christensen | LNP | Fairly safe | 50,300 | 0 | 50,300 |
| Kingston | Amanda Rishworth | ALP | Fairly safe | 47,100 | 3,100 | 50,200 |
| Indi | Cathy McGowan | IND | Cross bench | 50,100 | 0 | 50,100 |
| Wills | Kelvin Thomson | ALP | Safe | 6,100 | 43,700 | 49,800 |
| Durack | Melissa Price | LIB | Marginal | 49,500 | 0 | 49,500 |
| Brisbane | Teresa Gambaro | LNP | Marginal | 4,000 | 45,100 | 49,100 |
| Fadden | Stuart Robert | LNP | Safe | 23,100 | 26,000 | 49,100 |
| Grey | Rowan Ramsey | LIB | Safe | 48,900 | 0 | 48,900 |
| Reid | Craig Laundy | LIB | Marginal | 12,800 | 36,000 | 48,800 |
| Mallee | Andrew Broad | NAT | Fairly safe | 48,600 | 0 | 48,600 |
| Pearce | Christian Porter | LIB | Fairly safe | 43,000 | 5,400 | 48,400 |
| Bennelong | John Alexander | LIB | Fairly safe | 2,600 | 44,800 | 47,400 |
| Aston | Alan Tudge | LIB | Fairly safe | 2,200 | 44,800 | 47,000 |
| Ryan | Jane Prentice | LNP | Fairly safe | 13,000 | 34,000 | 47,000 |
| McMillan | Russell Broadbent | LIB | Safe | 46,900 | 0 | 46,900 |
| Grayndler | Anthony Albanese | ALP | Safe | 1,200 | 45,400 | 46,600 |
| Eden-Monaro | Peter Hendy | LIB | Marginal | 46,500 | 0 | 46,500 |
| Flynn | Ken O’Dowd | LNP | Fairly safe | 45,300 | 0 | 45,300 |
| Wannon | Dan Tehan | LIB | Safe | 45,300 | 0 | 45,300 |
| Perth | Alannah MacTiernan | ALP | Marginal | 45,200 | 0 | 45,200 |
| Oxley | Bernie Ripoll | ALP | Marginal | 23,800 | 21,300 | 45,100 |
| Shortland | Jill Hall | ALP | Fairly safe | 44,900 | 0 | 44,900 |
| Lyne | David Gillespie | NAT | Safe | 44,600 | 0 | 44,600 |
| Brand | Gary Gray | ALP | Marginal | 44,600 | 0 | 44,600 |
| Makin | Tony Zappia | ALP | Marginal | 28,600 | 15,900 | 44,500 |
| Calwell | Maria Vamvakinou | ALP | Safe | 29,800 | 14,300 | 44,100 |
| Hinkler | Keith Pitt | LNP | Fairly safe | 43,500 | 0 | 43,500 |
| McPherson | Karen Andrews | LNP | Safe | 12,600 | 30,600 | 43,200 |
| Parkes | Mark Coulton | NAT | Safe | 43,200 | 0 | 43,200 |
| Newcastle | Sharon Claydon | ALP | Fairly safe | 43,200 | 0 | 43,200 |
| Maranoa | Bruce Scott | LNP | Safe | 42,100 | 0 | 42,100 |
| Casey | Tony Smith | LIB | Fairly safe | 25,400 | 16,600 | 42,000 |
| Braddon | Brett Whiteley | LIB | Marginal | 39,900 | 0 | 39,900 |
| Wentworth | Malcolm Turnbull | LIB | Safe | 0 | 39,600 | 39,600 |
| Banks | David Coleman | LIB | Marginal | 1,100 | 38,300 | 39,400 |
| Curtin | Julie Bishop | LIB | Safe | 1,500 | 37,100 | 38,600 |
| Holt | Anthony Byrne | ALP | Fairly safe | 19,200 | 19,300 | 38,500 |
| Rankin | Jim Chalmers | ALP | Marginal | 4,700 | 33,100 | 37,800 |
| McMahon | Chris Bowen | ALP | Marginal | 8,000 | 29,200 | 37,200 |
| Wide Bay | Warren Truss | LNP | Safe | 36,500 | 0 | 36,500 |
| Groom | Ian Macfarlane | LNP | Safe | 35,900 | 0 | 35,900 |
| Swan | Steve Irons | LIB | Fairly safe | 33,300 | 2,500 | 35,800 |
| Canberra | Gai Brodtmann | ALP | Fairly safe | 35,400 | 0 | 35,400 |
| Macarthur | Russell Matheson | LIB | Safe | 35,200 | 0 | 35,200 |
| Wright | Scott Buchholz | LNP | Safe | 35,200 | 0 | 35,200 |
| Hasluck | Ken Wyatt | LIB | Marginal | 34,700 | 0 | 34,700 |
| Murray | Sharman Stone | LIB | Safe | 34,700 | 0 | 34,700 |
| Moore | Ian Goodenough | LIB | Safe | 9,900 | 24,600 | 34,500 |
| Goldstein | Andrew Robb | LIB | Safe | 0 | 34,300 | 34,300 |
| Blair | Shayne Neumann | ALP | Marginal | 14,400 | 18,400 | 32,800 |
| Hindmarsh | Matt Williams | LIB | Marginal | 6,100 | 24,100 | 30,200 |
| Griffith | Kevin Rudd | ALP | Marginal | 7,400 | 22,800 | 30,200 |
| Maribyrnong | Bill Shorten | ALP | Safe | 1,600 | 28,200 | 29,800 |
| Lilley | Wayne Swan | ALP | Marginal | 3,600 | 25,800 | 29,400 |
| Cowper | Luke Hartsuyker | NAT | Safe | 28,500 | 0 | 28,500 |
| Robertson | Lucy Wicks | LIB | Marginal | 28,400 | 0 | 28,400 |
| Mackellar | Bronwyn Bishop | LIB | Safe | 12,100 | 15,800 | 27,900 |
| Melbourne Ports | Michael Danby | ALP | Marginal | 3,700 | 24,000 | 27,700 |
| Scullin | Andrew Giles | ALP | Safe | 12,900 | 14,800 | 27,700 |
| Macquarie | Louise Markus | LIB | Marginal | 27,000 | 0 | 27,000 |
| Lyons | Eric Hutchinson | LIB | Marginal | 26,900 | 0 | 26,900 |
| Lindsay | Fiona Scott | LIB | Marginal | 5,100 | 21,500 | 26,600 |
| Ballarat | Catherine King | ALP | Marginal | 25,200 | 0 | 25,200 |
| Hughes | Craig Kelly | LIB | Safe | 5,000 | 19,900 | 24,900 |
| Herbert | Ewen Jones | LNP | Fairly safe | 24,600 | 0 | 24,600 |
| Werriwa | Laurie Ferguson | ALP | Marginal | 8,300 | 15,900 | 24,200 |
| Berowra | Philip Ruddock | LIB | Safe | 7,200 | 16,600 | 23,800 |
| Fowler | Chris Hayes | ALP | Safe | 9,800 | 14,000 | 23,800 |
| Longman | Wyatt Roy | LNP | Fairly safe | 23,100 | 0 | 23,100 |
| Cunningham | Sharon Bird | ALP | Fairly safe | 20,900 | 0 | 20,900 |
| Parramatta | Julie Owens | ALP | Marginal | 3,600 | 13,300 | 16,900 |
| Menzies | Kevin Andrews | LIB | Safe | 0 | 16,800 | 16,800 |
| Franklin | Julie Collins | ALP | Marginal | 14,800 | 0 | 14,800 |
| Charlton | Pat Conroy | ALP | Fairly safe | 12,900 | 0 | 12,900 |
| Lingiari | Warren Snowdon | ALP | Marginal | 11,300 | 0 | 11,300 |
| Denison | Andrew Wilkie | IND | Cross bench | 10,400 | 0 | 10,400 |
| Watson | Tony Burke | ALP | Fairly safe | 3,500 | 5,700 | 9,200 |
| Dobell | Karen McNamara | LIB | Marginal | 8,300 | 0 | 8,300 |
| Bass | Andrew Nikolic | LIB | Marginal | 4,000 | 0 | 4,000 |
| Solomon | Natasha Griggs | CLP | Marginal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
