October 2015 - jxeeno™ blog.

Just how fair is nbn’s proposed Satellite Fair Use Policy?

October 27, 2015 Kenneth Tsang 2 Comments

Simple maths shows 2x more per-user capacity compared with interim satellite, but only 0.7x more data allowance is proposed.

After revealing the proposed restrictions and fair use policies to help manage traffic and congestion on nbn Satellite service, some residents have taken to Whirlpool Broadband Forums to express their concerns. The primary concern being that a 75 GB 4-week rolling average limit doesn’t translate to 75 GB of “anytime data”.

According to the draft Fair Use Policy, nbn will — in addition to limiting the maximum usage per service to 75 GB on the standard CVC Class 0 — also limits the ISP-wide 4 week rolling average download and upload during peak periods (from 7am to 1am the following day, local time). Currently, the base CVC Class 0 is proposed to be 15 GB download and 3 GB upload.

This means, if the Fair Use Policy isn’t altered before the final satellite product release, a service provider would have to either carefully balance a number of lower capacity plans with higher capacity plans to maintain an average of 15GB, or offer one plan that provides close to 15GB with around 40GB of off-peak data up for grabs for all users.

CVC Class	AVC+CVC Fee (25/5 Mbps)*	User data cap (4-week rolling avg)	Peak Period Download (ISP 4-wk average)	Peak Period Upload (ISP 4-wk average)
0	$27.00	75 GB	15 GB	3 GB
1	$45.00	100 GB	20 GB	4 GB
2	$67.00	150 GB	25 GB	5 GB

Realistically, however, we can expect RSPs to oversell slightly given the 15 GB limit is averaged across the ISP using the assumption that a portion of their users will not reach the 15 GB limit.

Comparing increased capacity with Fair Use Policy

But just how fair is this 15 GB / 3 GB averaged limit being proposed by nbn? Let’s see how it compares with the current nbn Interim Satellite Service and nbn Fixed Wireless network.

Per-user allocated capacity

Firstly, let’s check how much satellite capacity is expected to be assigned to an end user. Since nbn imposes minimum customers-to-CVC (AVC-to-CVC) ratio (so RSPs can’t hog virtual capacity), we can calculate these numbers by dividing the CVC capacity by the maximum and minimum customers.

As seen above, this averages out to be around 125 kbps per user on CVC Class 0, 145 kbps per user on CVC Class 1 and 190 kbps per user on CVC Class 1.

CVC Class	Maximum CVC (Mbps)	Average per-user capacity allocation (kbps)
0	475	125
1	550	145
2	735	190

In comparison, the dimensioning of nbn‘s Fixed Wireless network allocates roughly 500 kbps per-user and 40 kbps on the current nbn Interim Satellite Service (ISS). In light of this, let’s compare the percentage difference in capacity on the various CVC Classes compared to Fixed Wireless and ISS:

CVC Class	Per-user capacity (kbps)	% of ISS capacity (40 kbps)	% of FW capacity (500 kbps)
0	125	313%	25%
1	145	363%	29%
2	190	475%	38%

So, the standard CVC Class 0 product has roughly 2 times (or is 313% of) per-user allocated capacity on the Interim Satellite Service. It is also roughly a quarter of the capacity on the NBN Fixed Wireless network. How do the Fair Use Policies for the ISS and Fixed Wireless compare numerically to the proposed Long Term Satellite?

Fair use policies

Interim Satellite Service: nbn‘s fair use policy for the Interim Satellite Service is structured similarly to the proposed Long Term Satellite policy. Currently, the cap at a per-AVC (or customer) basis is 50GB. 313% of that would bring it to ~150GB, rather than the 75GB proposed.

But as we have said, this limit means little given the bulk of downloads generally occur during peak time. While nbn doesn’t have a peak time average limit on the ISS, the company has mandated an ISP-wide averaged 9.7 GB download limit on a 4-week rolling average basis. For this model, let’s assume that ~90% of traffic occurs during peak time — coming to an estimated ISP-wide averaged 8.7 GB download limit on a 4-week rolling average basis. 313% of that would bring us to ~27.6 GB, compared to the 15 GB proposed.

In summary, while per-user assigned capacity has increased by around 2x compared with the ISS — data limits in the fair use policy have only increased by a mere 0.72x.

Fixed Wireless: nbn‘s fair use policy for the Fixed Wireless network is straightforward. RSPs must maintain, on average across their user base, less than 200GB download (let’s consider download only). Like the ISS, there are no limits on peak/off-peak usage… but let’s assume that 90% of traffic is carried during peak time (meaning ~180 GB download). If we take 25% of the Fixed Wireless fair use policy, we get 45 GB per month of peak time data per month.

Having calculated that, however, it’s important to remember that Fixed Wireless is a fundamentally different product. Given it has far more capacity compared with any satellite product, there is more room to wriggle when it comes to the fair use policy limits. However, for completeness sake, while the per-user capacity on the LTS is around 25% of Fixed Wireless — the data limits in the fair use policy are a mere 8.3%.

CVC Class	% of ISS capacity	% of ISS FUP (1)	% of ISS FUP (2)	% of FW capacity	% of FW FUP (1)
0	*313%*	172%	150%	*25%*	8%
1	*363%*	230%	200%	*29%*	11%
2	*475%*	245%	300%	*38%*	17%

Table: % of per-user allocated capacity when compared with ISS capacity and FW capacity, and compares this with the % of the various data allowances set in proposed Fair Use Policy
(1) refers to the ISP-wide 4-week rolling average, (2) refers to the per-AVC cap (50 GB on ISS, not applicable for FW)

The summary

nbn appears to be very conservative when it comes to allocating data allowances on the Fair Use Policy. Comparing to the Interim Satellite Service, per-user capacity has increased by between 2x to ~3x (depending on which CVC Class you choose). However, ISP-wide peak-time data allowance only increases by between ~0.72x to ~2.5x (again, depending on CVC Class being compared).

As the writer doing the analysis, I believe there is scope for nbn to increase limits currently proposed in the draft Fair Use Policy. Ideally, if service providers can buy two times more CVC capacity compared with what they can do on the ISS — they should be able to offer customers around the same amount more data… but I’m not going to sit here and pretend that using capacity can be calculated using simple maths.

Real networks are far more complex beasts, and simple calculations do not necessarily reflect how real networks behave. But I believe a simple scale projection, as I’ve done above, would aid the public gaining some perspective on how little data caps have increased in comparison to the new satellite’s extra capacity.

All is not lost:

Some service providers who are helping nbn test their satellite systems before the Q2 2016 launch are actively working with nbn to get the best Fair Use Policy possible. In the words of Paul Rees, the managing director at SkyMesh:

“We’re doing all we can to get the best FUP for customers that provides decent Data Allowances that don’t wreck LTSS performance at peak times.”

“The FUP hasn’t been set in stone yet, those numbers are just part of a draft document. So let’s have some calm, and save the ‘going nuts’ until the FUP has been formally decided.”

Wise words, Paul. We wish you all the best in your pursuit.

NBN consults on Fibre TV in new developments

October 27, 2015October 27, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

New product to transmit terrestrial TV signals over NBN fibre is designed to compete with other fibre providers for new developments

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, nbn, has released a briefing paper on the so-called Fibre TV concept, requesting for feedback and expression of interest. Fibre TV would take advantage of the Radio Frequency over Glass (RFoG) standard, enabling Radio Frequency (RF) signals to be transmitted over fibre.

nbn‘s new product is seen as a response to the Federal Government’s updated Telecommunications in New Development (TIND) policy which has seen increased competition for delivering telecommunications infrastructure to new developments. Many new developments who are serviced by other fibre providers take advantage of this technology, which enables developments access free-to-air TV with antenna-less rooftops and also potentially gain access to premium channels not otherwise transmitted over free to air TV.

Previously, nbn had removed RFoG functionality from their network when it acquired the TransACT Fibre to the Premises network around Canberra. TransACT previously took advantage of this technology, however, as part of the transition to NBN Fibre — antennas were installed in place service.

In the briefing paper, the company outlines three main steps taken to enable Fibre TV in a new development:

Firstly, a number of TV service providers will sign an “RF Light Path Agreement” enabling them to use their RFoG equipment on the nbn network where needed. These providers will typically provide free-to-air TV services, but can also provide premium services.

New developments would then, on engaging with nbn to build out their fibre network, request the company to enable this technology in the network. The company would install an RF converter, separate to the Fibre Network Termination Device (F-NTD), to connect to the coaxial TV cable within the home.

The development would could then engage with nbn-certified TV service providers to provide their residents with television services over fibre.

Under the proposal, nbn will only make this service available to new developments greater than 250 Multi-Dwelling Units or 500 Single-Dwelling Units in the FTTP footprint.

Feedback and expression of interest in the Fibre TV service is due back to nbn by 10th November 2015.

NBN working on AVC trunking project to overcome 121 POIs

October 24, 2015November 12, 2015 Kenneth Tsang 2 Comments

For a small fee, nbn could allow small service providers tap into its transit network to drive up backhaul market competition

nbn, the company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, has reportedly been working with smaller service providers in developing a so-called “AVC trunking” service.

Currently, service providers are required to connect their network with nbn‘s 121 points of interconnect located around Australia in order to service all of Australia. This puts smaller service providers who do not have existing backhaul networks at a big disadvantage.

This AVC trunking project aims to allow smaller Tier 2 service providers to take advantage of nbn‘s inter-POI (point of interconnect) transit network by paying a small fee to terminate Access Virtual Circuits (AVCs) from smaller or more remote Points of Interconnect to larger depots located in capital cities.

ACCC seeks feedback from small providers

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has interviewed a number of small service providers to obtain feedback regarding nbn‘s AVC trunking project. It’s understood that feedback from small service providers has been overwhelmingly positive.

Paul Rees, Managing Director of the ISP SkyMesh, has noted on Whirlpool Broadband Forums that: “Unless the ACCC approves this scheme, or the larger providers start offering backhaul at realistic prices, we’ll never make it to Tasmania, the Northern Territory or far north Queensland. If the ACCC is serious about maintaining competition on the nbn™ network, they will approve [CVC Trunking].”

A consolidated backhaul market

When the NBN was first established, NBN Co had preferred a 7+7 Point of Interconnect model where service providers would connect to major interconnection points in capital cities to service an entire state. However, after lobbying from major backhaul monopoly providers from the likes of Telstra and Optus — the ACCC favoured a dispersed 121 Point of Interconnection model.

Since the ACCC decision, major acquisitions by TPG and M2 have resulted in significantly reduced competition in the backhaul market. Most notably, TPG’s acquisition of PIPE Networks and AAPT, plus the recent Vocus-M2 merger sees almost all major backhaul providers aligning with a company with a consumer retail front. This could allow the companies to increase wholesale backhaul costs to their competitors to lock out retail competition.

By opening up nbn‘s inter POI transit network to the AVC trunking project, it could drive backhaul competition especially to regions with less transit competition such as Tasmania and Northern Territory. The implementation of any such project would be subject to approval by the ACCC.

NBN Long Term Satellite restrictions: revealed

October 23, 2015October 27, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

nbn proposes standard 75GB data cap per month with 100GB and 150GB premium options to ensure satellites aren’t congested.

On Friday, nbn, the company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, released draft documents relating to the NBN Co Satellite Network set to launch in the second quarter of next year as part of the Satellite Trial Product Agreement. The documents (see bottom of page) reveal a number of measures and restrictions expected to be taken by the company to prevent excessive use of data by end users.

CVC Classes

nbn will be introducing a concept called CVC Classes, which are essentially different levels of service on the NBN Co Satellite Network. There are three classes, starting with the standard CVC Class 0, plus two additional premium CVC Classes — 1 and 2. These classes are costed differently, have a different maximum contention ratio and have a different maximum data usage cap.

Cost

Cost-wise, the company will charge service providers an extra $18.00 and $40.00 ex. GST per Access Virtual Circuit (essentially, per end-user) for CVC Class 1 and 2 respectively on top of the existing AVC and CVC costs. CVC Class 0 will have no additional charge.

The following table shows the AVC + CVC Class Fee. (Note: this is not representative of the cost of NBN Satellite plans. Actual costs are likely to be higher as this excludes any CVC, NNI, network transit and peering costs incurred by Service Providers).

CVC Class	CVC Class Fee	AVC TC-4 12/1 Mbps	AVC+CVC Fee (12/1 Mbps)	AVC TC-4 25/5 Mbps	AVC+CVC Fee (25/5 Mbps)
0	$0.00	$24.00	$24.00	$27.00	$27.00
1	$18.00	$24.00	$42.00	$27.00	$45.00
2	$40.00	$24.00	$64.00	$27.00	$67.00

Data usage caps

On the data usage cap side, the company is two key enforcement metrics across all classes. As part of the Fair Use Policy, nbn will introduce a per-AVC (essentially, per end-user) cap calculated on a rolling 4 week average basis. The maximum usage over the four weeks are 75 GB, 100 GB and 150 GB for CVC Class 0, 1 and 2 respectively. This is compared to 50 GB currently being enforced on the nbn Interim Satellite Service.

A second data usage enforcement metric is the “Peak Period” usage, which is calculated as an average across the Service Provider’s CVC Class user base. During this peak period, defined as being between 7:00 am to 1:00 am (the following day) in the local timezone of the premises — the average upload/download data usage across all the ISP’s CVC Class users is 15/3GB, 20/4GB and 25/5GB for CVC Class 0, 1 and 2 respectively.

CVC Class	AVC+CVC Fee (25/5 Mbps)*	User data cap (4-week rolling avg)	Peak Period Download (ISP 4-wk average)	Peak Period Upload (ISP 4-wk average)
0	$27.00	75 GB	15 GB	3 GB
1	$45.00	100 GB	20 GB	4 GB
2	$67.00	150 GB	25 GB	5 GB

* this is not representative of the cost of NBN Satellite plans. Actual costs are likely to be higher as this excludes any CVC, NNI, network transit and peering costs incurred by Service Providers.

Failure for the service provider to comply with the data usage caps could result in data deprioritisation by nbn and/or shaping upload and download speeds to 256/256kbps until the issue is resolved.

Contention ratios

nbn will also place restrictions on the CVC-to-AVC contention ratio, enforcing a minimum number of end users a service provider must have on a particular CVC before allowing them to step up to the next tier.

On a CVC Class 0 CVC, the CVC capacity can range from the initial 100 Mbps up to 475 Mbps in 25 Mbps intervals. The service provider must have at least 890 AVCs (equivalent to users) in that CVC Class in order to increase their CVC capacity beyond the initial 100 Mbps. A minimum of 210 additional AVCs are required for each 25 Mbps capacity increase.

For CVC Class 1, the maximum CVC capacity is 550 Mbps. To move beyond the initial 100 Mbps CVC, the service provider must have at least 680 AVCs and can increase in 25 Mbps intervals for every 195 AVCs.

CVC Class 2 CVCs have a maximum CVC capacity is 725 Mbps. Moving beyond the initial 100 Mbps CVC would require 548 AVCs and 25 Mbps increases for every 142 AVCs.

CVC Class	Maximum CVC (Mbps)	Minimum AVCs (end-users) required to move beyond initial 100 Mbps	AVCs (end-users) required for each 25 Mbps interval beyond 100 Mbps
0	475	890	210
1	550	680	195
2	735	548	142

For assuming the 12/1 Mbps tier across all users: CVC class 0 provides a minimum contention ratio of ~1:106 with CVC class 1 and CVC Class 2 requiring a minimum contention of ~1:81 and ~1:68 respectively.

thoughts & analysis

Managing satellite network traffic has always been a tricky issue. One one hand, the company doesn’t want to be perceived as disadvantaging rural and regional areas. On the other hand, it is a necessity to make sure the service isn’t so heavily congested that no-one can use it.

The Interim Satellite Service was a good learning experience for nbn. Service providers wanted to offer their users “unlimited” or high quota plans, thinking it could be offset by many more low-usage users. They soon realised that the providers were unable to manage their own capacity well enough and soon, implemented traffic management policies to help manage the overly congested 48,000 users on the limited existing capacity of Optus and IPStar.

The limitations set by nbn are complex, there’s no doubt about that. There are more intricacies that are omitted in this post — simply because they are too hard to explain simply. These complexities means that small RSPs may struggle with implementing the traffic limiters and monitoring tools required to meet nbn‘s strict policies. This could result in reduced competition in the long run.

On the quota…

Read updated analysis

Note from the writer: Please take this section with a grain of salt. My views have changed substantially since this section was written because I had assumed that an end user could actually access all of the 75GB, 100GB and 150GB of data on CVC Class 0, 1 and 2 respectively. However, it is now evident to me that the Fair Use Policy has implications on time of use and doesn’t account for data incurred during shaped data usage. Please read the updated analysis for more information.

So, will 75 GB on a rolling 4-week average be enough? As a standard quota, I think it will fit within most people’s needs.

Currently, NBN offers 50 GB on a 4-week rolling average to their Interim Satellite Service. So, 75 GB may seem like a small bump — but it’s 50% more nonetheless.

To keep things in perspective, statistics released by ABS show the average data consumption across all fixed-line technologies (end of 2014) is around 60 GB. Further to that, the statistics released by nbn in their end of FY14/15 shows average data consumption on the NBN has steadily risen from 80 GB in September 2014 to 109 GB in June 2015. So on an average consumption basis, I think the 75 GB monthly quota would fit the bill for most people.

So while nbn would expect most customers who take up a standard-tier 75 GB plan, the option is there to bump it up to 150 GB which is technically above the 109 GB average for current fixed-line/fixed-wireless nbn end users.

We also need to consider the demographic of the majority of these users: they live in very rural or remote communities. Most regional centres are serviced by NBN Fixed Wireless and some form of NBN Fixed-line technology. The remaining of these customers would have previously had very limited Internet connectivity, if any.

The standard 75 GB, plus the option of the more expensive 100 and 150 GB tiers will provide these rural communities with more than just a taste of online connectivity. It will give users access to services like email and YouTube, and perhaps even more revolutionary — access to video conferencing through the likes of Skype or access to massive libraries of online TV content on Netflix, Presto or Stan. All this will be possible within the confines of 75 GB, provided image quality is throttled accordingly.

Ideally, of course, each user should be given more capacity. Hopefully, with the launch of the second satellite, nbn is able to augment some of the redundancy capacity on that satellite to use as more bandwidth for each user.

Relevant documents

[Source: nbn Testing Arrangements, Satellite Trial Product Terms supporting documentation]

NBN to cease Interim Satellite orders mid-November

October 23, 2015October 23, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Remote customers advised to wait until Long Term Satellite launch in the second quarter of 2016.

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, nbn, has updated their public website this afternoon — informing customers wishing to connect to their current Interim Satellite Solution (ISS) and the nbn™ Satellite Support Scheme (NSS) that it will cease accepting new orders for both services on November 15th, 2015. nbn will also cease installation of new equipment from December 15th, 2015.

This comes as the first NBN satellite, Sky Muster, successfully launched at the start of this month and is expected to commence commercial services in the second quarter of 2016.

The company has advised would-be customers of the ISS and NSS that after the cease-sale dates for both services:

[…] you will need to wait for the launch of our Long Term Satellite services expected in the second quarter of 2016 and then connect your retail service provider.

The Interim Satellite Solution (ISS) was a temporary service set-up to replace the existing Australian Broadband Guarantee (ABG) while the new NBN satellites were being designed and launched. The service, which uses existing satellite capacity on Optus and IPStar satellites, reached its maximum capacity of 48,000 customers in mid-December 2013 when it saw higher-than-anticipated take-up and use — leading to a serious congestion during peak periods. The company had since implemented a number of changes, including enforced data caps, to prevent service abuse. The service was opened up to an additional 9,000 activations in April 2014.

The new Long Term Satellite (LTS) significantly upgrades the existing satellite services on both the ISS and NSS, and is designed to deliver speeds of up to 25 Mbps download and up to 5 Mbps upload to customers in remote and regional Australia.

[nbn™ Satellite Support Scheme]

NBN sets December launch date for up to 50/20Mbps speeds

October 20, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Product construct similar to NBN’s copper network

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, nbn, has released an updated Wholesale Broadband Agreement (WBA) to service providers which includes the new up to 50/20 Mbps speed range.

Originally, the company had limited the speed achievable on the NBN Fixed Wireless network to be 25/5 Mbps. However, according to the Product Technical Specification document, the equipment (W-NTD) installed in homes are capable of speeds of up to 75 Mbps downstream and 20 Mbps upstream depending on the equipment version.

nbn will begin to offer the 25-50/5-20 Mbps speed tier for the commonly used Traffic Class 4 Access Virtual Circuit, starting 1st December 2015. The company will also offer a 0.3 Mbps Traffic Class 1 Access Virtual Circuit — up from 0.15 Mbps, intended for low-latency services such as VoIP lines.

However, unlike the other Fixed-line technologies such as Fibre, FTTN and HFC — the NBN Fixed Wireless network will not offer an up-to 25/10 Mbps speed tier.

The company has been trialing the product since mid-May this year.

Analysis: cross-bench and marginal seats benefit from 3 year NBN plan

October 19, 2015November 12, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Rollout numbers are higher in the densely populated areas held by cross-bench and marginal LNP MPs.

Writer’s note, 20th Oct: A point of clarification. While the data does show on an averaged party-margin basis that seats of a few cross-bench MPs have a higher number of homes in the 3 year plan, this does not suggest a direct correlation between the two. As stated previously in the article, albeit possibly not clearly enough, the seats held by the Greens, KAP and PUP are generally more densely populated and thus, would tend to have higher rollout figures in the fixed-line 3 year plan.

Analysis of the nbn construction plan released last week shows that on an averaged per-electorate basis, seats held by cross-bench MPs Adam Bandt (Greens), Bob Katter (Katter Australian Party), Clive Palmer (Palmer United Party) and conservative LNP seats has the greatest number of premises scheduled to commence construction over the next 3 years. However, the majority of these seats are coincidentally located in the more densely populated areas of Australia.

By party margin on a per-electorate basis

Between now and September 2018, Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne is expected to see 99,600 premises commence build. Bob Katter’s electorate of Kennedy is expected to see 71,500 premises commence build, followed by Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax taking 68,200 premises into build by late 2018.

On a per-electorate basis (that is, the total number of premises divided by the number of seats held), marginal Liberal-National Party and Nationals Party seats come in at fourth and fifth with 59,233 and 56,300 premises expected to enter build respectively.

Party	Margin classification	Total planned fixed-line	Electorates under this category	Planned Fixed-line (per-electorate)*
GRN	Cross bench	99,600	1	99,600
KAP	Cross bench	71,500	1	71,500
PUP	Cross bench	68,200	1	68,200
LNP	Marginal	355,400	6	59,233
NAT	Marginal	56,300	1	56,300
ALP	Safe	836,200	15	55,747
LIB	Fairly safe	493,500	9	54,833
LIB	Safe	1,430,800	29	49,338
ALP	Marginal	1,413,400	29	48,738
NAT	Fairly safe	48,600	1	48,600
NAT	Safe	331,500	7	47,357
LNP	Safe	323,200	7	46,171
LNP	Fairly safe	406,200	9	45,133
ALP	Fairly safe	472,500	11	42,955
LIB	Marginal	819,500	20	40,975
IND	Cross bench	60,500	2	30,250

* the total number of premises in the plan to commence build (column 3), divided by the number of seats held within the party-margin category (column 4)

By electorate

However, the winning electorate is the electorate of Sydney – currently held by Labor MP Tanya Plibersek – with a total of 106,800 premises slated to commence build by late 2018. This is followed closely by Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne (99,600), Labor MP Melissa Parke’s marginal seat of Fremantle (94,700) and Labor MP Clare O’Neil’s seat of Hothan (92,000). The high number of premises in these areas is reflective of the dense population of these inner metropolitan centres.

Of the 150 federal electorates, only the electorate of Solomon – held by Country Liberal MP Natasha Griggs – has no fixed-line rollout plans. The electorate covers the greater Darwin area where NBN rollout is mostly completed or already underway.

Electorate Name	MP elected in 2013	Held by	Margin classification	Planned FTTx Premises	Planned HFC premises	Planned Fixed Line (total)
Sydney	Tanya Plibersek	ALP	Safe	12,100	94,700	106,800
Melbourne	Adam Bandt	GRN	Cross bench	24,800	74,800	99,600
Fremantle	Melissa Parke	ALP	Marginal	89,500	5,200	94,700
Hotham	Clare O’Neil	ALP	Fairly safe	6,000	86,000	92,000
Flinders	Greg Hunt	LIB	Safe	90,900	0	90,900
Higgins	Kelly O’Dwyer	LIB	Fairly safe	0	90,000	90,000
Bruce	Alan Griffin	ALP	Marginal	29,500	54,600	84,100
Wakefield	Nick Champion	ALP	Marginal	55,100	28,900	84,000
Leichhardt	Warren Entsch	LNP	Marginal	63,500	19,600	83,100
Chisholm	Anna Burke	ALP	Marginal	700	80,600	81,300
Moncrieff	Steven Ciobo	LNP	Safe	17,600	63,600	81,200
Warringah	Tony Abbott	LIB	Safe	18,000	60,000	78,000
Kooyong	Josh Frydenberg	LIB	Safe	0	75,600	75,600
Batman	David Feeney	ALP	Safe	1,700	73,200	74,900
Blaxland	Jason Clare	ALP	Safe	4,300	69,900	74,200
Kingsford Smith	Matt Thistlethwaite	ALP	Marginal	1,600	72,400	74,000
Corio	Richard Marles	ALP	Fairly safe	72,800	0	72,800
Kennedy	Bob Katter	KAP	Cross bench	59,100	12,400	71,500
Fairfax	Clive Palmer	PUP	Cross bench	68,200	0	68,200
Stirling	Michael Keenan	LIB	Safe	59,800	7,800	67,600
Deakin	Michael Sukkar	LIB	Marginal	2,500	63,800	66,300
Cowan	Luke Simpkins	LIB	Fairly safe	43,000	22,200	65,200
Adelaide	Kate Ellis	ALP	Marginal	17,700	47,000	64,700
Jagajaga	Jenny Macklin	ALP	Marginal	8,500	55,500	64,000
Forrest	Nola Marino	LIB	Safe	63,500	0	63,500
Corangamite	Sarah Henderson	LIB	Marginal	63,400	0	63,400
North Sydney	Joe Hockey	LIB	Safe	7,900	55,500	63,400
Boothby	Andrew Southcott	LIB	Fairly safe	25,600	37,000	62,600
Bendigo	Lisa Chesters	ALP	Marginal	61,900	0	61,900
Lalor	Joanne Ryan	ALP	Safe	32,500	29,300	61,800
Fraser	Andrew Leigh	ALP	Safe	48,400	13,400	61,800
McEwen	Rob Mitchell	ALP	Marginal	61,500	0	61,500
Bowman	Andrew Laming	LNP	Fairly safe	36,100	25,000	61,100
Dunkley	Bruce Billson	LIB	Marginal	36,100	24,100	60,200
Port Adelaide	Mark Butler	ALP	Safe	51,600	8,200	59,800
Greenway	Michelle Rowland	ALP	Marginal	23,300	36,000	59,300
Bradfield	Paul Fletcher	LIB	Safe	0	58,900	58,900
Petrie	Luke Howarth	LNP	Marginal	17,200	41,600	58,800
Gellibrand	Tim Watts	ALP	Safe	14,100	44,700	58,800
Gorton	Brendan O’Connor	ALP	Safe	24,900	33,400	58,300
Chifley	Ed Husic	ALP	Safe	9,000	49,000	58,000
Isaacs	Mark Dreyfus	ALP	Marginal	21,300	36,400	57,700
Fisher	Mal Brough	LNP	Fairly safe	57,600	0	57,600
La Trobe	Jason Wood	LIB	Marginal	43,500	13,900	57,400
Mitchell	Alex Hawke	LIB	Safe	26,800	30,000	56,800
Gippsland	Darren Chester	NAT	Safe	56,400	0	56,400
Page	Kevin Hogan	NAT	Marginal	56,300	0	56,300
Richmond	Justine Elliot	ALP	Marginal	55,900	0	55,900
Canning	Don Randall	LIB	Safe	55,800	0	55,800
Farrer	Sussan Ley	LIB	Safe	55,700	0	55,700
Gilmore	Ann Sudmalis	LIB	Marginal	55,200	0	55,200
Tangney	Dennis Jensen	LIB	Safe	44,100	11,100	55,200
Paterson	Bob Baldwin	LIB	Fairly safe	55,100	0	55,100
Bonner	Ross Vasta	LNP	Marginal	8,400	46,600	55,000
Capricornia	Michelle Landry	LNP	Marginal	54,800	0	54,800
Forde	Bert van Manen	LNP	Marginal	28,800	25,800	54,600
Barton	Nickolas Varvaris	LIB	Marginal	1,700	52,800	54,500
Cook	Scott Morrison	LIB	Safe	5,900	48,200	54,100
Dickson	Peter Dutton	LNP	Fairly safe	20,200	33,500	53,700
New England	Barnaby Joyce	NAT	Safe	39,800	13,900	53,700
Calare	John Cobb	NAT	Safe	53,500	0	53,500
Moreton	Graham Perrett	ALP	Marginal	5,000	47,600	52,600
Throsby	Stephen Jones	ALP	Fairly safe	52,500	0	52,500
O’Connor	Rick Wilson	LIB	Marginal	52,300	0	52,300
Barker	Tony Pasin	LIB	Safe	51,700	0	51,700
Riverina	Michael McCormack	NAT	Safe	51,600	0	51,600
Sturt	Christopher Pyne	LIB	Safe	18,800	32,200	51,000
Hunter	Joel Fitzgibbon	ALP	Marginal	50,800	0	50,800
Hume	Angus Taylor	LIB	Safe	49,000	1,600	50,600
Mayo	Jamie Briggs	LIB	Safe	45,900	4,700	50,600
Dawson	George Christensen	LNP	Fairly safe	50,300	0	50,300
Kingston	Amanda Rishworth	ALP	Fairly safe	47,100	3,100	50,200
Indi	Cathy McGowan	IND	Cross bench	50,100	0	50,100
Wills	Kelvin Thomson	ALP	Safe	6,100	43,700	49,800
Durack	Melissa Price	LIB	Marginal	49,500	0	49,500
Brisbane	Teresa Gambaro	LNP	Marginal	4,000	45,100	49,100
Fadden	Stuart Robert	LNP	Safe	23,100	26,000	49,100
Grey	Rowan Ramsey	LIB	Safe	48,900	0	48,900
Reid	Craig Laundy	LIB	Marginal	12,800	36,000	48,800
Mallee	Andrew Broad	NAT	Fairly safe	48,600	0	48,600
Pearce	Christian Porter	LIB	Fairly safe	43,000	5,400	48,400
Bennelong	John Alexander	LIB	Fairly safe	2,600	44,800	47,400
Aston	Alan Tudge	LIB	Fairly safe	2,200	44,800	47,000
Ryan	Jane Prentice	LNP	Fairly safe	13,000	34,000	47,000
McMillan	Russell Broadbent	LIB	Safe	46,900	0	46,900
Grayndler	Anthony Albanese	ALP	Safe	1,200	45,400	46,600
Eden-Monaro	Peter Hendy	LIB	Marginal	46,500	0	46,500
Flynn	Ken O’Dowd	LNP	Fairly safe	45,300	0	45,300
Wannon	Dan Tehan	LIB	Safe	45,300	0	45,300
Perth	Alannah MacTiernan	ALP	Marginal	45,200	0	45,200
Oxley	Bernie Ripoll	ALP	Marginal	23,800	21,300	45,100
Shortland	Jill Hall	ALP	Fairly safe	44,900	0	44,900
Lyne	David Gillespie	NAT	Safe	44,600	0	44,600
Brand	Gary Gray	ALP	Marginal	44,600	0	44,600
Makin	Tony Zappia	ALP	Marginal	28,600	15,900	44,500
Calwell	Maria Vamvakinou	ALP	Safe	29,800	14,300	44,100
Hinkler	Keith Pitt	LNP	Fairly safe	43,500	0	43,500
McPherson	Karen Andrews	LNP	Safe	12,600	30,600	43,200
Parkes	Mark Coulton	NAT	Safe	43,200	0	43,200
Newcastle	Sharon Claydon	ALP	Fairly safe	43,200	0	43,200
Maranoa	Bruce Scott	LNP	Safe	42,100	0	42,100
Casey	Tony Smith	LIB	Fairly safe	25,400	16,600	42,000
Braddon	Brett Whiteley	LIB	Marginal	39,900	0	39,900
Wentworth	Malcolm Turnbull	LIB	Safe	0	39,600	39,600
Banks	David Coleman	LIB	Marginal	1,100	38,300	39,400
Curtin	Julie Bishop	LIB	Safe	1,500	37,100	38,600
Holt	Anthony Byrne	ALP	Fairly safe	19,200	19,300	38,500
Rankin	Jim Chalmers	ALP	Marginal	4,700	33,100	37,800
McMahon	Chris Bowen	ALP	Marginal	8,000	29,200	37,200
Wide Bay	Warren Truss	LNP	Safe	36,500	0	36,500
Groom	Ian Macfarlane	LNP	Safe	35,900	0	35,900
Swan	Steve Irons	LIB	Fairly safe	33,300	2,500	35,800
Canberra	Gai Brodtmann	ALP	Fairly safe	35,400	0	35,400
Macarthur	Russell Matheson	LIB	Safe	35,200	0	35,200
Wright	Scott Buchholz	LNP	Safe	35,200	0	35,200
Hasluck	Ken Wyatt	LIB	Marginal	34,700	0	34,700
Murray	Sharman Stone	LIB	Safe	34,700	0	34,700
Moore	Ian Goodenough	LIB	Safe	9,900	24,600	34,500
Goldstein	Andrew Robb	LIB	Safe	0	34,300	34,300
Blair	Shayne Neumann	ALP	Marginal	14,400	18,400	32,800
Hindmarsh	Matt Williams	LIB	Marginal	6,100	24,100	30,200
Griffith	Kevin Rudd	ALP	Marginal	7,400	22,800	30,200
Maribyrnong	Bill Shorten	ALP	Safe	1,600	28,200	29,800
Lilley	Wayne Swan	ALP	Marginal	3,600	25,800	29,400
Cowper	Luke Hartsuyker	NAT	Safe	28,500	0	28,500
Robertson	Lucy Wicks	LIB	Marginal	28,400	0	28,400
Mackellar	Bronwyn Bishop	LIB	Safe	12,100	15,800	27,900
Melbourne Ports	Michael Danby	ALP	Marginal	3,700	24,000	27,700
Scullin	Andrew Giles	ALP	Safe	12,900	14,800	27,700
Macquarie	Louise Markus	LIB	Marginal	27,000	0	27,000
Lyons	Eric Hutchinson	LIB	Marginal	26,900	0	26,900
Lindsay	Fiona Scott	LIB	Marginal	5,100	21,500	26,600
Ballarat	Catherine King	ALP	Marginal	25,200	0	25,200
Hughes	Craig Kelly	LIB	Safe	5,000	19,900	24,900
Herbert	Ewen Jones	LNP	Fairly safe	24,600	0	24,600
Werriwa	Laurie Ferguson	ALP	Marginal	8,300	15,900	24,200
Berowra	Philip Ruddock	LIB	Safe	7,200	16,600	23,800
Fowler	Chris Hayes	ALP	Safe	9,800	14,000	23,800
Longman	Wyatt Roy	LNP	Fairly safe	23,100	0	23,100
Cunningham	Sharon Bird	ALP	Fairly safe	20,900	0	20,900
Parramatta	Julie Owens	ALP	Marginal	3,600	13,300	16,900
Menzies	Kevin Andrews	LIB	Safe	0	16,800	16,800
Franklin	Julie Collins	ALP	Marginal	14,800	0	14,800
Charlton	Pat Conroy	ALP	Fairly safe	12,900	0	12,900
Lingiari	Warren Snowdon	ALP	Marginal	11,300	0	11,300
Denison	Andrew Wilkie	IND	Cross bench	10,400	0	10,400
Watson	Tony Burke	ALP	Fairly safe	3,500	5,700	9,200
Dobell	Karen McNamara	LIB	Marginal	8,300	0	8,300
Bass	Andrew Nikolic	LIB	Marginal	4,000	0	4,000
Solomon	Natasha Griggs	CLP	Marginal	0	0	0

NBN’s weird app for employees: share rollout info with mates

October 12, 2015October 12, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Make friends with NBN employees! They may be able to shed light into your pesky rollout issues.

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, nbn, has published a page on its public website stating the terms and conditions of a mobile app known as “Ken App”. According to the 422 word page, the app will be accessible exclusively to some full-time employees on mobile devices issued by the company.

The purpose of the mobile app will be used by these select employees to “access information about the nbn network” as well as “raise requests with the nbn Contact Centre on behalf of friends and relatives”. The app can also apparently be used to “request for an email to be sent to a third party with information on the nbn™ network”.

opinion

It seems like an odd app for nbn to develop. Why create an app that is only accessible for your employees to look up and share NBN rollout information and lodge support requests?

Is the nbn website really that terrible that friends and family of employees can’t lodge their support requests or find the information they need? Why does it seem the friends and relatives of these employees will get preferential treatment and more information over other members of the public?

I guess this implies that friends and relatives of nbn employees will also have access to more detailed NBN rollout information and will get special follow-up treatment on any issues they have. I suggest you make friends with NBN employees quick and fast! #FriendsOfNBN

Friends of the NBN: they have access to the special app for more information!

NBN to start HFC pilot in November

October 12, 2015 Kenneth Tsang 1 Comment

Pilot program expected to run until March 2016

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network, nbn, has released a test agreement to service providers who intend to participate in an end-user HFC pilot which is expected to begin on or around 1st November 2015. In the document, nbn states that they will use the pilot to “test NBN Co’s delivery of a Layer 2 NEBS to End User premises through the use of HFC technology, which will assist NBN Co to develop a commercial HFC Product.”

Like the current Fibre to the Premises network, nbn will install a Network Termination Device (NTD) at the end user’s premises. However, this device will only have a single data port for interfacing with the NBN network. The device will also neglect the voice port (UNI-V) found in the Fibre to the Premises NTD.

The pilot will enable service providers to provide trial services only to their existing HFC, copper phone line or DSL customers within the pilot HFC footprint.

nbn intends to end the pilot by 15 March 2016. According to the latest Integrated Product Roadmap, nbn expects their HFC product to officially launch in the second quarter of 2016. [HFC Pilot Test Description]

NBN’s mobile backhaul service launching end of next year

October 1, 2015 Kenneth Tsang 1 Comment

Cell Access Service will allow mobile carriers like Vodafone to use the NBN’s network to connect mobile towers. But has this come too late?

Vodafone has long campaigned the company building the National Broadband Network, nbn, to open its fixed-line network to mobile carriers like itself to quickly and relatively cheaply connect mobile towers. Vodafone and nbn had begun trialing such a service since mid-November in 2013. According to the latest Integrated Product Roadmap released this month, nbn intends to continue trialing the service until the end of 2016 when it expects to officially launch its Cell Access Service product:

The Cell Site Access Service will provide connectivity between cell sites and nbn Points of Interconnect.

The Cell Site Access Service will provide connectivity between a network operator’s mobile cell-sites and nbn’s Points-of-Interconnect and also nbn’s fixed wireless ‘hub’ sites where they are connected to the nbn Points-of-Interconnect by fibre. The service will initially be offered within the FTTP and FW footprint, with the potential for it to be expanded to include other parts of the Multi Technology Mix network in the future.

But is it too little, too late? Earlier this week however, Vodafone and TPG announced that as part of a $1 billion dollar deal — TPG will provide fibre for the mobile carrier to connect its mobile network towers for the next 15 years. It’s unclear if this is an exclusive deal where Vodafone must only use TPG as their only backhaul provider, but it may significantly reduce nbn‘s prospect in profiting from such a service.

Last month, I wrote about how NBN could transform the mobile transit market. While it may still ring true — with Vodafone now seemingly out of the game for NBN-based mobile transit — one must wonder how much nbn could realistically expect from its new product offering.