plan

Analysis: cross-bench and marginal seats benefit from 3 year NBN plan

Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Rollout numbers are higher in the densely populated areas held by cross-bench and marginal LNP MPs.

Writer’s note, 20th Oct: A point of clarification. While the data does show on an averaged party-margin basis that seats of a few cross-bench MPs have a higher number of homes in the 3 year plan, this does not suggest a direct correlation between the two. As stated previously in the article, albeit possibly not clearly enough, the seats held by the Greens, KAP and PUP are generally more densely populated and thus, would tend to have higher rollout figures in the fixed-line 3 year plan.

Analysis of the nbn construction plan released last week shows that on an averaged per-electorate basis, seats held by cross-bench MPs Adam Bandt (Greens), Bob Katter (Katter Australian Party), Clive Palmer (Palmer United Party) and conservative LNP seats has the greatest number of premises scheduled to commence construction over the next 3 years. However, the majority of these seats are coincidentally located in the more densely populated areas of Australia.

By party margin on a per-electorate basis

Between now and September 2018, Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne is expected to see 99,600 premises commence build.  Bob Katter’s electorate of Kennedy is expected to see 71,500 premises commence build, followed by Clive Palmer’s electorate of Fairfax taking 68,200 premises into build by late 2018.

On a per-electorate basis (that is, the total number of premises divided by the number of seats held), marginal Liberal-National Party and Nationals Party seats come in at fourth and fifth with 59,233 and 56,300 premises expected to enter build respectively.

Party Margin classification Total planned fixed-line Electorates under this category Planned Fixed-line (per-electorate)*
GRN Cross bench  99,600 1  99,600
KAP Cross bench  71,500 1  71,500
PUP Cross bench  68,200 1  68,200
LNP Marginal  355,400 6  59,233
NAT Marginal  56,300 1  56,300
ALP Safe  836,200 15  55,747
LIB Fairly safe  493,500 9  54,833
LIB Safe  1,430,800 29  49,338
ALP Marginal  1,413,400 29  48,738
NAT Fairly safe  48,600 1  48,600
NAT Safe  331,500 7  47,357
LNP Safe  323,200 7  46,171
LNP Fairly safe  406,200 9  45,133
ALP Fairly safe  472,500 11  42,955
LIB Marginal  819,500 20  40,975
IND Cross bench  60,500 2  30,250

* the total number of premises in the plan to commence build (column 3), divided by the number of seats held within the party-margin category (column 4)

Graph showing planned premises in the 3 year rollout plan sorted by electorate margin, normalised by dividing the number of premises by the number of seats held
Graph showing planned premises in the 3 year rollout plan sorted by seat margin, normalised by dividing the number of premises by the number of seats held in each category

By electorate

However, the winning electorate is the electorate of Sydney – currently held by Labor MP Tanya Plibersek – with a total of 106,800 premises slated to commence build by late 2018.  This is followed closely by Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne (99,600), Labor MP Melissa Parke’s marginal seat of Fremantle (94,700) and Labor MP Clare O’Neil’s seat of Hothan (92,000).  The high number of premises in these areas is reflective of the dense population of these inner metropolitan centres.

Of the 150 federal electorates, only the electorate of Solomon – held by Country Liberal MP Natasha Griggs – has no fixed-line rollout plans.  The electorate covers the greater Darwin area where NBN rollout is mostly completed or already underway.

Electorate Name MP elected in 2013 Held by Margin classification Planned FTTx Premises Planned HFC premises Planned Fixed Line (total)
Sydney Tanya Plibersek ALP Safe 12,100 94,700 106,800
Melbourne Adam Bandt GRN Cross bench 24,800 74,800 99,600
Fremantle Melissa Parke ALP Marginal 89,500 5,200 94,700
Hotham Clare O’Neil ALP Fairly safe 6,000 86,000 92,000
Flinders Greg Hunt LIB Safe 90,900 0 90,900
Higgins Kelly O’Dwyer LIB Fairly safe 0 90,000 90,000
Bruce Alan Griffin ALP Marginal 29,500 54,600 84,100
Wakefield Nick Champion ALP Marginal 55,100 28,900 84,000
Leichhardt Warren Entsch LNP Marginal 63,500 19,600 83,100
Chisholm Anna Burke ALP Marginal 700 80,600 81,300
Moncrieff Steven Ciobo LNP Safe 17,600 63,600 81,200
Warringah Tony Abbott LIB Safe 18,000 60,000 78,000
Kooyong Josh Frydenberg LIB Safe 0 75,600 75,600
Batman David Feeney ALP Safe 1,700 73,200 74,900
Blaxland Jason Clare ALP Safe 4,300 69,900 74,200
Kingsford Smith Matt Thistlethwaite ALP Marginal 1,600 72,400 74,000
Corio Richard Marles ALP Fairly safe 72,800 0 72,800
Kennedy Bob Katter KAP Cross bench 59,100 12,400 71,500
Fairfax Clive Palmer PUP Cross bench 68,200 0 68,200
Stirling Michael Keenan LIB Safe 59,800 7,800 67,600
Deakin Michael Sukkar LIB Marginal 2,500 63,800 66,300
Cowan Luke Simpkins LIB Fairly safe 43,000 22,200 65,200
Adelaide Kate Ellis ALP Marginal 17,700 47,000 64,700
Jagajaga Jenny Macklin ALP Marginal 8,500 55,500 64,000
Forrest Nola Marino LIB Safe 63,500 0 63,500
Corangamite Sarah Henderson LIB Marginal 63,400 0 63,400
North Sydney Joe Hockey LIB Safe 7,900 55,500 63,400
Boothby Andrew Southcott LIB Fairly safe 25,600 37,000 62,600
Bendigo Lisa Chesters ALP Marginal 61,900 0 61,900
Lalor Joanne Ryan ALP Safe 32,500 29,300 61,800
Fraser Andrew Leigh ALP Safe 48,400 13,400 61,800
McEwen Rob Mitchell ALP Marginal 61,500 0 61,500
Bowman Andrew Laming LNP Fairly safe 36,100 25,000 61,100
Dunkley Bruce Billson LIB Marginal 36,100 24,100 60,200
Port Adelaide Mark Butler ALP Safe 51,600 8,200 59,800
Greenway Michelle Rowland ALP Marginal 23,300 36,000 59,300
Bradfield Paul Fletcher LIB Safe 0 58,900 58,900
Petrie Luke Howarth LNP Marginal 17,200 41,600 58,800
Gellibrand Tim Watts ALP Safe 14,100 44,700 58,800
Gorton Brendan O’Connor ALP Safe 24,900 33,400 58,300
Chifley Ed Husic ALP Safe 9,000 49,000 58,000
Isaacs Mark Dreyfus ALP Marginal 21,300 36,400 57,700
Fisher Mal Brough LNP Fairly safe 57,600 0 57,600
La Trobe Jason Wood LIB Marginal 43,500 13,900 57,400
Mitchell Alex Hawke LIB Safe 26,800 30,000 56,800
Gippsland Darren Chester NAT Safe 56,400 0 56,400
Page Kevin Hogan NAT Marginal 56,300 0 56,300
Richmond Justine Elliot ALP Marginal 55,900 0 55,900
Canning Don Randall LIB Safe 55,800 0 55,800
Farrer Sussan Ley LIB Safe 55,700 0 55,700
Gilmore Ann Sudmalis LIB Marginal 55,200 0 55,200
Tangney Dennis Jensen LIB Safe 44,100 11,100 55,200
Paterson Bob Baldwin LIB Fairly safe 55,100 0 55,100
Bonner Ross Vasta LNP Marginal 8,400 46,600 55,000
Capricornia Michelle Landry LNP Marginal 54,800 0 54,800
Forde Bert van Manen LNP Marginal 28,800 25,800 54,600
Barton Nickolas Varvaris LIB Marginal 1,700 52,800 54,500
Cook Scott Morrison LIB Safe 5,900 48,200 54,100
Dickson Peter Dutton LNP Fairly safe 20,200 33,500 53,700
New England Barnaby Joyce NAT Safe 39,800 13,900 53,700
Calare John Cobb NAT Safe 53,500 0 53,500
Moreton Graham Perrett ALP Marginal 5,000 47,600 52,600
Throsby Stephen Jones ALP Fairly safe 52,500 0 52,500
O’Connor Rick Wilson LIB Marginal 52,300 0 52,300
Barker Tony Pasin LIB Safe 51,700 0 51,700
Riverina Michael McCormack NAT Safe 51,600 0 51,600
Sturt Christopher Pyne LIB Safe 18,800 32,200 51,000
Hunter Joel Fitzgibbon ALP Marginal 50,800 0 50,800
Hume Angus Taylor LIB Safe 49,000 1,600 50,600
Mayo Jamie Briggs LIB Safe 45,900 4,700 50,600
Dawson George Christensen LNP Fairly safe 50,300 0 50,300
Kingston Amanda Rishworth ALP Fairly safe 47,100 3,100 50,200
Indi Cathy McGowan IND Cross bench 50,100 0 50,100
Wills Kelvin Thomson ALP Safe 6,100 43,700 49,800
Durack Melissa Price LIB Marginal 49,500 0 49,500
Brisbane Teresa Gambaro LNP Marginal 4,000 45,100 49,100
Fadden Stuart Robert LNP Safe 23,100 26,000 49,100
Grey Rowan Ramsey LIB Safe 48,900 0 48,900
Reid Craig Laundy LIB Marginal 12,800 36,000 48,800
Mallee Andrew Broad NAT Fairly safe 48,600 0 48,600
Pearce Christian Porter LIB Fairly safe 43,000 5,400 48,400
Bennelong John Alexander LIB Fairly safe 2,600 44,800 47,400
Aston Alan Tudge LIB Fairly safe 2,200 44,800 47,000
Ryan Jane Prentice LNP Fairly safe 13,000 34,000 47,000
McMillan Russell Broadbent LIB Safe 46,900 0 46,900
Grayndler Anthony Albanese ALP Safe 1,200 45,400 46,600
Eden-Monaro Peter Hendy LIB Marginal 46,500 0 46,500
Flynn Ken O’Dowd LNP Fairly safe 45,300 0 45,300
Wannon Dan Tehan LIB Safe 45,300 0 45,300
Perth Alannah MacTiernan ALP Marginal 45,200 0 45,200
Oxley Bernie Ripoll ALP Marginal 23,800 21,300 45,100
Shortland Jill Hall ALP Fairly safe 44,900 0 44,900
Lyne David Gillespie NAT Safe 44,600 0 44,600
Brand Gary Gray ALP Marginal 44,600 0 44,600
Makin Tony Zappia ALP Marginal 28,600 15,900 44,500
Calwell Maria Vamvakinou ALP Safe 29,800 14,300 44,100
Hinkler Keith Pitt LNP Fairly safe 43,500 0 43,500
McPherson Karen Andrews LNP Safe 12,600 30,600 43,200
Parkes Mark Coulton NAT Safe 43,200 0 43,200
Newcastle Sharon Claydon ALP Fairly safe 43,200 0 43,200
Maranoa Bruce Scott LNP Safe 42,100 0 42,100
Casey Tony Smith LIB Fairly safe 25,400 16,600 42,000
Braddon Brett Whiteley LIB Marginal 39,900 0 39,900
Wentworth Malcolm Turnbull LIB Safe 0 39,600 39,600
Banks David Coleman LIB Marginal 1,100 38,300 39,400
Curtin Julie Bishop LIB Safe 1,500 37,100 38,600
Holt Anthony Byrne ALP Fairly safe 19,200 19,300 38,500
Rankin Jim Chalmers ALP Marginal 4,700 33,100 37,800
McMahon Chris Bowen ALP Marginal 8,000 29,200 37,200
Wide Bay Warren Truss LNP Safe 36,500 0 36,500
Groom Ian Macfarlane LNP Safe 35,900 0 35,900
Swan Steve Irons LIB Fairly safe 33,300 2,500 35,800
Canberra Gai Brodtmann ALP Fairly safe 35,400 0 35,400
Macarthur Russell Matheson LIB Safe 35,200 0 35,200
Wright Scott Buchholz LNP Safe 35,200 0 35,200
Hasluck Ken Wyatt LIB Marginal 34,700 0 34,700
Murray Sharman Stone LIB Safe 34,700 0 34,700
Moore Ian Goodenough LIB Safe 9,900 24,600 34,500
Goldstein Andrew Robb LIB Safe 0 34,300 34,300
Blair Shayne Neumann ALP Marginal 14,400 18,400 32,800
Hindmarsh Matt Williams LIB Marginal 6,100 24,100 30,200
Griffith Kevin Rudd ALP Marginal 7,400 22,800 30,200
Maribyrnong Bill Shorten ALP Safe 1,600 28,200 29,800
Lilley Wayne Swan ALP Marginal 3,600 25,800 29,400
Cowper Luke Hartsuyker NAT Safe 28,500 0 28,500
Robertson Lucy Wicks LIB Marginal 28,400 0 28,400
Mackellar Bronwyn Bishop LIB Safe 12,100 15,800 27,900
Melbourne Ports Michael Danby ALP Marginal 3,700 24,000 27,700
Scullin Andrew Giles ALP Safe 12,900 14,800 27,700
Macquarie Louise Markus LIB Marginal 27,000 0 27,000
Lyons Eric Hutchinson LIB Marginal 26,900 0 26,900
Lindsay Fiona Scott LIB Marginal 5,100 21,500 26,600
Ballarat Catherine King ALP Marginal 25,200 0 25,200
Hughes Craig Kelly LIB Safe 5,000 19,900 24,900
Herbert Ewen Jones LNP Fairly safe 24,600 0 24,600
Werriwa Laurie Ferguson ALP Marginal 8,300 15,900 24,200
Berowra Philip Ruddock LIB Safe 7,200 16,600 23,800
Fowler Chris Hayes ALP Safe 9,800 14,000 23,800
Longman Wyatt Roy LNP Fairly safe 23,100 0 23,100
Cunningham Sharon Bird ALP Fairly safe 20,900 0 20,900
Parramatta Julie Owens ALP Marginal 3,600 13,300 16,900
Menzies Kevin Andrews LIB Safe 0 16,800 16,800
Franklin Julie Collins ALP Marginal 14,800 0 14,800
Charlton Pat Conroy ALP Fairly safe 12,900 0 12,900
Lingiari Warren Snowdon ALP Marginal 11,300 0 11,300
Denison Andrew Wilkie IND Cross bench 10,400 0 10,400
Watson Tony Burke ALP Fairly safe 3,500 5,700 9,200
Dobell Karen McNamara LIB Marginal 8,300 0 8,300
Bass Andrew Nikolic LIB Marginal 4,000 0 4,000
Solomon Natasha Griggs CLP Marginal 0 0 0
Fibre pit hauling

83k premises dropped from July NBN rollout plan

Kenneth Tsang 1 Comment

The devil is in the detail – July’s quarterly construction plan shows 83k premises removed from the nbn rollout plan.

Analysis of the 18 month rollout plan released in July by nbn has shown that around 83,500 premises previously listed as being in the 18 month plan had been removed.

The areas removed were slated for a Fibre to the Node rollout to commence during 2016 and include the areas of and surrounding:

New South Wales

  • Cessnock/Bellbird
  • Darlington Point

Queensland

  • Brassall
  • Currumbin
  • Helidon
  • Magnetic Island
  • Samford
  • Gold Coast/Tweed Heads
  • Mount Crosby
  • Sunshine Coast/Noosa
  • Pittsworth
  • Robina

South Australia

  • Flinders

Tasmania

  • Queenstown
  • Rosebery
  • Zeehan

(for more information, see full table at the end of the post)

At the start of July, the company responsible for building the National Broadband Network announced in a media release that an additional 200,000 premises were added to the nbn rollout.

From initial calculations, this figure was derived from the total number of premises that were added to the rollout plan and does not take into account the number of premises removed from the plan.

If true, this means that the net increase in number of premises expected to commence construction within 18 months would be around 40% less than announced (from 200,000 to around 120,000 premises) in the July press release.

(more…)