NBN Co releases new Technology Choice Policy

March 12, 2015June 1, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

NBN Co is set to give consumers more choice over the technology being rolled out. They have released their new Technology Choice Policy which will allow individuals or whole areas to switch from NBN Co’s designated technology under the Multi-Technology Mix model to an alternative technology type at a cost to the consumer.

This is a much anticipated component of the revised rollout policy after NBN Co’s switch to the Multi-Technology Mix — allowing consumers to purchase a “fibre-on-demand” product. However, there are no details or estimates on the expected cost of upgrade build.

As part of the application and network design process, NBN Co will charge individuals $600 (ex GST), and at least $1,000 (ex GST) for a quote to network switch over a large area. According to the NBN Co website, the final costs for each the different technology upgrade “can range from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands of dollars” for an individual premises switch and “can range from tens of thousands of dollars to several millions of dollars” for a switch of an entire service area.

While absent from the actual policy document, NBN Co’s Chief Customer Officer John Simon indicated to ZDNet’s Josh Taylor that the fee for the application will be refunded if the extension goes ahead.

At launch, NBN Co will allow applications to switch an entire area from FTTB, FTTN, Fixed Wireless or Satellite to a full fibre network (FTTP). Starting April, individuals be able to make an application to switch from FTTB to FTTP; and following from that, the switch from FTTN to FTTP will be available in July 2015.

However, the possibility of a HFC to FTTP upgrade is still being considered and developed by NBN Co.

NBN Area Switch Options — NBN Technology Choice Program: Availability information for the area switch option

The new policy, released this week on Friday*, replaces the existing Network Extension Program which enabled individuals or communities who were slated for Fixed Wireless or Satellite to upgrade to Fibre to the Premises or Fixed Wireless (respectively).

Clarification: Policy was intended to be released on Friday by NBN Co, but was made available on its website on Thursday night. Because NBN Co did intend to release it on Friday, the date when this policy was “released” will still say “Friday” in this post

Fibre rollout may be one-third less than Strategic Review

November 16, 2014June 1, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

(analysis) NBN Co may rollout as little as 16% fibre to the premises under new principles released by the company. Their new guidelines reveal that within the fixed-line footprint, only new developments with over 100 premises or areas where fibre rollout are in advanced stages will likely receive Fibre to the Premises (FTTP). Remaining premises will be served by a mix of HFC and Fibre to the Node or Basement in the fixed-line footprint. This is despite the NBN Co Strategic Review initiated by the incoming Coalition government released 11 months ago suggested that at least 24% of premises in Australia will get FTTP.

Calculations conducted using myNBN.info’s extensive statistics reveal that only around 70 Fixed-line Service Areas (comparable to cities, see tables below) around the whole of Australia are “completed” or “in advanced stages” of the rollout (at least 50% of the rollout modules have at least begun build preparation). This accounts for roughly 1 million premises, or 8% at the end of the rollout in 2020. In addition, NBN Co expects another approximately 1 million premises in new developments (known as greenfields areas) with over 100 premises, accounting for a further 8%¹. The total of 16% is roughly one third less than the original 24% suggested in the Strategic Review, or approximately 1 million premises around Australia.

The Government’s statement of expectations mandates the company to provide at least 25 mbps download speeds to all Australian premises with at least 90% of premises in the fixed-line footprint able to get 50 mbps or faster download speeds. NBN Co will only consider installing fibre in areas, not individual premises, where NBN Co finds the existing copper infrastructure to be incapable of delivering speeds required by the mandate. NBN Co is also investigating the possibility for installing fibre in limited “high-profit” areas as well as providing an end-user co-funded “fibre on demand” model.

The figure for greenfields fibre rollout may decrease further as the Government considers new rules that encourage property developers to use alternative fibre providers such as Opticomm.

In previous testimony, NBN Co’s CEO Bill Morrow had indicated that the Fibre to the Premises rollout mix may in fact be higher than that modelled in the Strategic Review:

Bill Morrow: In fact, the number that I recall is a bit higher than that in the early stage of the modelling that we are working on right now.

Bill Morrow: APH Hansard

However, it appears that the modelling has reversed in terms of the number of FTTP premises. In less than 11 months, the multi-technology modelling conducted by NBN Co in their strategic review appears to have been proven to be inaccurate.

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NBN Co releases FTTN map: but doesn’t distinguish between FTTP

October 20, 2014June 1, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

A few minutes after midnight, on a dark and cold Monday morning — NBN Co released their latest update to the NBN rollout map showing areas that are part of the Fibre to the Node deployment trial. This was a long awaited update — speculated for a whole week before the map update. A full list of CSAMs can be found at the end of this post.

However, one of the striking issues when you first look at the map is… there’s no way to distinguish between an FTTN and an FTTP area. The following screenshot of the rollout map shows both an FTTP and FTTN rollout. The area labeled “B” is in build phase, and happens to be FTTP… but can you distinguish which technology is used in the other “P” sites?

Hopefully, NBN Co will eventually fix it up and let us know which technology is being rolled out in which areas 🙂

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NBN Co adds remediation to rollout map

June 4, 2014May 27, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

In a website update late Wednesday night, NBN Co has added FSAMs (Fibre Serving Area Modules) that are undergoing Telstra remediation to their rollout map — marking them as having commenced “Build preparation”. A full list of FSAMs added to the remediation stage can be found at the end of this post.

In a typical NBN Co brownfields fibre-to-the-premies (FTTP) rollout, NBN Co releases areas for Telstra to replace pits and ducts (remediation) before sending their own construction partners into the area to build and rollout the fibre.

NBN Co has previously indicated that it was their intention to improve the rollout map to make it more relevant and accurate to end users. This addition comes after NBN Co removed around two-thirds of the areas listed as “Construction commenced” after the change in Government, replacing it instead with a build commenced metric. This new “Build preparation” provide more clarity to Australians who may have previously witnessed “NBN work” in their area yet the NBN Co rollout map had not been updated to reflect that.

NBN Co also recently changed their premises passed metric in an attempt to make it more relevant and accurate to consumers and retail service providers.

Brownfields Fibre (Remediation)

(NBS) denotes an FSAM “never before seen” on the construction maps. i.e. not part of those that were removed from the Construction Commenced map in Nov 2013.

(NBS) 2BLK-11 — (Marayong, Blacktown)
(NBS) 2WLG-07 — (North Wollongong, West Wollongong, Wollongong, Gwy)
(NBS) 2WLG-08 — (Wollongong)
(NBS) 3SHP-07 — (Mooroopna)
(NBS) 4APL-10 — (Taigum, Zillmere, Boondall)
(NBS) 4KLG-08 — (Murrumba Downs, Kallangur)
(NBS) 4TOB-11 — (Middle Ridge)
2CAM-02 — (Canterbury, Campsie)
2CBT-01 — (Campbelltown, Bradbury)
2COR-05 — (Woonona, Russell Vale)
2COR-06 — (Corrimal, Russell Vale, Bellambi)
2COR-07 — (Tarrawanna, Corrimal)
2DAP-01 — (Kembla Grange, Wongawilli, Horsley)
2DAP-05 — (Marshall Mount, Penrose, Dapto)
2DAP-06 — (Horsley)
2LID-08 — (Auburn)
2LJT-05 — (Bateau Bay)
2LJT-06 — (Bateau Bay)
2LJT-08 — (Long Jetty, Toowoon Bay, Blue Bay)
2MAI-11 — (Raworth, Tenambit, Morpeth)
2MYF-01 — (Mayfield)
2NWR-02 — (Nowra)
2NWR-03 — (Nowra Hill, South Nowra, West Nowra, Nowra)
2PTH-08 — (Werrington Downs, Cambridge Park)
2TEE-05 — (Taree)
2WLG-02 — (Wollongong)
2WLG-03 — (Mangerton, Mount Saint Thomas, Coniston)
2WLG-04 — (West Wollongong, Mangerton)
2WLG-05 — (West Wollongong, Mount Keira)
3BAC-05 — (Darley)
3CBN-05 — (Cranbourne)
3CTN-06 — (Melbourne)
3FSR-06 — (Seddon, Yarraville, Kingsville)
3FSR-08 — (West Footscray, Tottenham)
3KAL-01 — (Langwarrin)
4AAR-02 — (Calamvale)
4AAR-06 — (Calamvale, Algester)
4APL-05 — (Carseldine, Bridgeman Downs)
4APL-06 — (Carseldine)
4APL-07 — (Fitzgibbon)
4APL-08 — (Boondall)
4APL-09 — (Taigum, Boondall)
4BDB-03 — (New Chum, Riverview, Dinmore)
4BDB-04 — (New Chum, Redbank, Collingwood Park)
4CAI-06 — (Manunda, Cairns North)
4GDN-07 — (Bellbird Park, Augustine Heights)
4GDN-08 — (Carole Park, Ellen Grove, Gailes, Wacol, Camira)
4GUL-07 — (Kirwan, Thuringowa Central, Cranbrook)
4IPS-08 — (Yamanto, Churchill)
4NDG-05 — (Wavell Heights, Nundah)
4TNS-07 — (Hyde Park, Pimlico, Hermit Park)
5MOD-05 — (Para Hills, Ingle Farm)
5PRO-02 — (Prospect, Dudley Park)
5PRO-04 — (Collinswood, Enfield, Nailsworth, Sefton Park, Bro)
5PRO-05 — (Medindie Gardens, Nailsworth, Vale Park, Walkervil)
5PRO-06 — (Medindie, Medindie Gardens, Walkerville, Gilberton)
5PTE-01 — (Victor Harbor)
5PTE-02 — (Hindmarsh Valley, McCracken, Hayborough)
5SBY-01 — (Strathalbyn)
5SFD-03 — (Old Noarlunga, Noarlunga Downs)
6APP-01 — (Mount Pleasant, Applecross)
6APP-03 — (Mount Pleasant, Ardross)
6GLT-05 — (Spalding, Bluff Point)
6PNJ-01 — (Pinjarra)
6PNJ-02 — (Ravenswood)
6SPT-01 — (South Perth)
6SPT-04 — (South Perth, Como)
6VIC-04 — (Rivervale, Burswood)
7HOB-07 — (New Town, North Hobart, Mount Stuart)
9QBN-04 — (Queanbeyan East, The Ridgeway, Greenleigh)
9QBN-06 — (Oaks Estate, Crestwood)

NZ aims for at least 75% FTTP, AU stuck at 26%

May 21, 2014May 27, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

In a presentation to institutional investors yesterday, Chrous, the leading telecommunications company in New Zealand projected that at least 75% of premises will be connected using FTTP/B by the end of 2020 — in sharp comparison with the 26% planned for the Coalition’s Multi-Technology Mix National Broadband Network (MTM NBN).

In a world where the majority of the world is moving towards a full-fibre deployment to replace existing infrastructure, NBN Co and the Coalition’s policy takes the reverse approach in phasing out an FTTP rollout in favour for a inferior FTTN network topology. Under the MTM model, brownfields Fibre to the Premises rollout will stop by CY2018 with the remainder of the rollout being FTTN-only. This means that under this model as bandwidth demands grow, Australians will be provided an upgraded service without the capacity and capability of delivering the demand needed.

In the contrary however, Chrous NZ and other telcos in New Zealand will be taking the initiative of rolling out Fibre to the Premises to deliver the demands of the present and the future. As indicated by the graph on their second slide, four providers will continue to pass premises incrementally into 2020 — with Chrous leading the way with a stable forecasted rollout rate.

Chorus NZ Investor Presentation: Slide 2 — Slide 2: Rollout of Fibre to the Premises continues to ramp up in NZ until 2020

Likewise, while Chrous is projecting continual efficiency savings in building a fibre network, NBN Co denied any cost saving measures can be implemented or found until 2017-18 when the rollout itself will stop. This is again, at odds with worldwide comparisons.

Congratulations to New Zealand for recognising that FTTP is the future. Yes, while we have to concede that a Fibre to the Node rollout will happen… the Coalition should really recognise the technological advantage of having fibre to the premises and the extreme reliability and upgradability of the technology. xDSL technologies will continue to limit Australia’s productivity into the future and will always be limited by distance.

Rather than phase out an FTTP build half-way through the NBN build, the network technology should really be ramped up as the demand grows. There is absolutely no logic in their rollout plans, at all.

New Zealand truly deserves to get a 75% FTTP deployment, what a pity no one in power sees the value of it in Australia today.

NZ Chorus FTTP vs rest of the world — While Australia lags, New Zealand will be the leader in high-speed broadband by 2020.

NBN: FTTP workflow resumes in mainland states

May 13, 2014May 27, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Updated: (14/05/2014) Further clarification plus link to FOI request + Q&A section at the bottom

In response to a recent Freedom of Information request, NBN Co reveals that an additional 81 FSAMs were added to the “pipeline” between the start of September 2013 till the end of March 2014 to begin the detailed design phase of the network.

The “detailed design” phase was previously marked with “Construction Commenced” on the NBN Co map. It indicates the first contract instruction issued to NBN Co’s delivery partners to commence the detailed design and conduct network proving exercises including roping and rodding and preliminary clearing of ducts using “vac-trucks”.

These FSAMs are in addition to the areas previously classed as “Construction Commenced” on the NBN Co rollout map prior to the election and may have come from the old 1 year rollout plan.

Construction Commencement Date: The date that NBN Co expects to baseline the map contained in the Network Design Document. Construction Commenced means that NBN Co has issued contract instruction to its construction partners, so they can commence work on the detailed design, field inspections and rodding / roping activities in an area. It signals the commencement of rollout engagement with communities and councils.

All states and territories in mainland Australia receives at least one of these contract instructions, but Tasmania misses out, due to the unresolved contract disputes with Visionstream. However, it is great to see that 19 FSAMs were issued in Western Australia and South Australia each, adding to the backlog of FSAMs that never passed design phase under Syntheo’s contracts.

Following on from this detailed design phase, once the final design is approved and handed back to NBN Co, they will issue remediation notices to Telstra to fix any pits and ducts that may need to be replaced. NBN Co then issues build instructions to their delivery partners to begin network construction. It is uncertain at this stage how long NBN Co anticipates the detailed design phase will take.

The precise location of these new FSAMs is also not yet known.

Q&A

Q: Are these FSAMs the same ones as those that were removed from the NBN Co rollout map?
A: No. These FSAMs are in addition to the “orange” shades removed after the election. It is highly probable that these areas came from the 1 year rollout map. Those areas previously shaded in orange and since removed should see build commence in due course, where NBN Co has determined it is “economically viable” to build in that area.

Q: Are these brownfields?
A: Yes, all these FSAMs are brownfields.

Q: Do we know the actual location / FSAM identifier?
A: No. That was not part of the scope of the FOI request. Requesting specific information like that would have resulted in high processing charges for the request.

Q: How long does it take for this batch of FSAM to reach build stage?
A: NBN Co has redacted average statistics for the design phase in the Strategic Review. At this point in time, this figure is uncertain.

Feel free to ask any questions in the comments. I’ll try and answer and collate here.

Malcolm, FTTP was apolitical…

April 25, 2014May 28, 2015 Kenneth Tsang Leave a comment

Despite repeated claims of by Minister of Communications, Malcolm Turnbull — the choice of the 93% Fibre to the Premises plan as chosen by the former Labor Government was not a “political” choice.

In a recent opinion piece by Minister Turnbull on ABC’s The Drum, he writes:

But it is critical to remember one very big difference between our Government and Labor’s on this matter. Labor made a thoroughly political decision to use FTTP for 93 per cent of the country – heedless of the economic consequences.

Source: ABC, The Drum: Our critics are stuck in the Labor mindset (Malcolm Turnbull)

But anyone who remembers the original plan for the National Broadband Network was actually an Fibre to the Node network.

The original plan was to undergo a tender process to ask companies like Telstra, or Optus to propose a network construction. The proposal was that the Government would contribute $4.7 million dollars (by selling off the Government’s remaining Telstra shares) to the construction of the network.

Six companies submitted proposals, including six Acacia, Axia NetMedia, Optus on behalf of Terria, TransACT and the Tasmanian Government. However, the Government announced on the 6th April 2009 that they did not find any of the proposals satisfactory. “Deterioration of the economy” during the global financial crisis (GFC) was cited to be the root cause of this failed request for proposal (RFP) by then-Communications Minister Stephen Conroy. Instead, it was announced that a Fibre to the Home (FTTH) network would be constructed by a Government-owned company, soon to be known as NBN Co.

How, I ask Malcolm Turnbull, is a failed request for proposal due to the global financial crisis a political decision? This one has seriously left my head scratching…