Widespread delays plague Multi-Technology rollout

Analysis: Some areas delayed by up to 8 months, with 290k premises delayed by at least a month

The company responsible for building the National Broadband Network has updated its rollout schedule, revealing wide ranging delays of over a month in 105 multi-technology mix (MTM) rollout areas around Australia, affecting around 290,000 premises.

These rollout areas predominantly uses the Coalition’s preferred Fibre to the Node (FTTN) technology, where the company rolls out fibre to the neighbourhood and reconnects with the existing copper to the home.  Despite promising rollouts using the FTTN technology to be faster to complete, the company had reportedly been facing issues including slow rollout design approvals from power companies who will have to power the nodes in the streets.  The reasoning behind the latest set of delays is unknown.

The areas worst affected by the delay are Cygnet in Tasmania and Mornington in Victoria, with a delay of 8 months shifting completion dates from late 2016 to mid 2017.  The is followed closely by another rollout area in Mornington, Victoria as well as South Hobart and Margate in Tasmania and Garfield in Victoria with delays of between 6 and 7 months.

The rollout in Fletcher, NSW and suburbs near Claremont, Hobart, Tasmania have been set back by around 5 months.  Another 8 rollout areas, covering around 22,400 premises in parts of Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and New South Wales have been delayed by 4 months.

For a full list of affected areas, refer to the table below.

Another 22 areas, not listed below, were delayed by less than a month.

Service Area Module (SAM) Locality May completion date June completion date # of months delayed Approx number of premises affected
7CYE-01 Cygnet Oct-2016 Jun-2017 8 600
3MOR-02 Mornington 12-Aug-2016 Apr-2017 8 3400
3MOR-05 Mornington Sep-2016 Apr-2017 7 2300
7HOB-12 South Hobart, Wellington Park, Fern Tree Oct-2016 Apr-2017 6 1000
7MGT-01 Electrona, Lower Snug, Margate, Snug, Coningham Dec-2016 Jun-2017 6 2000
3GAR-01 Garfield, Longwarry, Bunyip 05-Aug-2016 Feb-2017 6 2300
2NLT-01 Fletcher Oct-2016 Mar-2017 5 3700
7NWT-02 Chigwell, Berriedale Oct-2016 Mar-2017 5 2800
3TAG-04 Traralgon Oct-2016 Feb-2017 4 2600
4IGH-01 Ingham Oct-2016 Feb-2017 4 3000
6RKH-01 Safety Bay, Rockingham Sep-2016 Jan-2017 4 3100
6RKH-04 Rockingham, Safety Bay, Cooloongup Sep-2016 Jan-2017 4 3500
6ARM-02 Cardup, Byford Nov-2016 Mar-2017 4 4700
7BUI-04 Hillcrest, Montello, Park Grove, Parklands, Burnie Jan-2017 May-2017 4 1800
7HUL-01 Huonville, Ranelagh, Franklin Jan-2017 May-2017 4 2600
2GUL-01 Gulgong 15-Jul-2016 Nov-2016 4 1100
2NRN-01 Spring Farm Nov-2016 Feb-2017 3 800
7DER-04 Don, Stony Rise, Devonport Nov-2016 Feb-2017 3 3000
4SHF-02 Trinity Beach Sep-2016 Dec-2016 3 3200
2SHH-04 Flinders, Blackbutt Jan-2017 Apr-2017 3 3300
7ETD-01 East Devonport, Ambleside Dec-2016 Mar-2017 3 2600
7DSF-01 Dodges Ferry, Forcett, Lewisham, Primrose Sands, Carlton Dec-2016 Mar-2017 3 4300
7DER-03 Miandetta, Quoiba, Spreyton, Stony Rise, Tugrah, Aberdeen Jan-2017 Apr-2017 3 2900
3TAG-06 Traralgon 19-Aug-2016 Nov-2016 2 3400
2GLB-03 Run-o-Waters, Goulburn 22-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 2600
4WUR-09 Minyama, Buddina 08-Jul-2016 16-Sep-2016 2 3400
3MOE-03 Newborough, Moe 29-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 2800
2GLB-02 Goulburn 29-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 3200
3CRB-06 Craigieburn 29-Jul-2016 Oct-2016 2 4400
2GLB-04 Goulburn 22-Jul-2016 23-Sep-2016 2 2900
2ALB-01 South Albury, Albury 29-Jul-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 3600
7BUI-01 Emu Heights, Havenview, South Burnie, Wivenhoe, Burnie Dec-2016 Feb-2017 2 1200
3TAG-03 Traralgon East, Traralgon Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3100
4EDG-08 Kanimbla, Whitfield, Brinsmead Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 2600
4FRV-01 Norman Gardens Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3300
7HOB-11 Moonah, New Town, Lenah Valley Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3000
3WBO-01 Warrnambool Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 3700
7HOB-10 Sandy Bay Oct-2016 Dec-2016 2 3000
2BUP-03 Doyalson, Wyee, Blue Haven Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 3100
2NRN-06 Harrington Park Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 1800
3RYE-01 Rye Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 4000
4BWE-01 Bowen Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 2200
5MIC-01 Millicent Nov-2016 Jan-2017 2 2600
3CBR-64 Coburg North,Preston (Vic.),Reservoir (Vic.) Sep-2016 Nov-2016 2 1200
2BUP-01 San Remo, Buff Point 05-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 2 3200
3COL-02 Colac East, Elliminyt, Colac 05-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 2 3900
2MAI-09 Maitland, Telarah, Lorn 15-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 2 3300
3WAN-01 Wangaratta 15-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 2 3000
2MAI-06 Bolwarra Heights, Largs, Mindaribba, Bolwarra 22-Jul-2016 16-Sep-2016 2 2200
2ALB-04 North Albury, Albury 05-Aug-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 3400
2AVA-02 Avalon 05-Aug-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 2900
2MAI-01 Windella, Rutherford 12-Aug-2016 30-Sep-2016 2 1000
3MOE-04 Yallourn North, Newborough 19-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 1 3300
2MSV-03 East Bowral, Bowral 15-Jul-2016 26-Aug-2016 1 3500
2ALB-03 West Albury, Albury 29-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 1 3700
3SHP-09 Kialla West, Kialla 29-Jul-2016 09-Sep-2016 1 1500
2MTT-01 Mittagong, Willow Vale, Braemar 12-Aug-2016 23-Sep-2016 1 2000
4EDG-07 Earlville, Mooroobool, Bayview Heights 26-Aug-2016 Oct-2016 1 3400
3WAN-02 Wangaratta 15-Jul-2016 19-Aug-2016 1 2900
3WGU-04 Drouin East, Drouin 22-Jul-2016 26-Aug-2016 1 3400
7DER-01 Devonport 05-Aug-2016 09-Sep-2016 1 1800
2ERN-03 Green Point, Erina 12-Aug-2016 16-Sep-2016 1 3200
2KTB-02 Leura, Medlow Bath, Katoomba 12-Aug-2016 16-Sep-2016 1 3400
3WGU-05 Drouin 19-Aug-2016 23-Sep-2016 1 2800
4NEW-06 Cranley, Gowrie Junction, Torrington, Wilsonton, Wilsonton Heights, Cotswold Hills Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3300
2SHH-01 Shell Cove, Shellharbour, Dunmore Jan-2017 Feb-2017 1 3000
2NRN-05 Narellan, Narellan Vale, Elderslie Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 2900
2PKE-05 Lake Heights, Berkeley Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3900
5GPC-05 Pooraka, Para Hills West Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3700
2PKE-02 Lake Heights, Warrawong, Cringila Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3700
3LOR-20 Lorne Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 2500
3RMS-01 Romsey, Lancefield Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 2700
3SUN-01 Sunbury Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3300
2NRN-03 Narellan Vale, Smeaton Grange, Harrington Park Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3800
4BDA-20 Babinda Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 800
4FRV-03 Koongal, Lakes Creek, Nerimbera, Frenchville Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 4300
4SAR-01 Sarina Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 1900
6RKH-05 Waikiki, Cooloongup Oct-2016 Nov-2016 1 3700
6RKH-03 East Rockingham, Hillman, Rockingham, Cooloongup Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3300
6RKH-06 Waikiki, Safety Bay Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3500
6RKH-08 Rockingham, Peron Dec-2016 Jan-2017 1 3900
7CLT-01 Campbell Town Jan-2017 Feb-2017 1 700
5GPC-07 Mawson Lakes Jan-2017 Feb-2017 1 3600
3WDG-01 Wodonga, Leneva Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 2700
3WAN-03 Wangaratta, Waldara Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 1700
4NEW-09 Drayton, Harristown, Darling Heights Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 3100
7EXE-01 Exeter, Gravelly Beach, Lanena, Rosevears, Swan Point, Blackwall Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 900
4BUD-05 Palmwoods Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 2100
4ROT-01 Rockhampton City, Depot Hill Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 1400
4RED-01 Mount Cotton, Carbrook Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 3000
4SHF-01 Trinity Beach, Trinity Park, Kewarra Beach Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 1900
7NOL-01 Magra, New Norfolk, Lawitta Sep-2016 Oct-2016 1 2900
5BDT-20 Bordertown Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 1600
7BIC-01 Bicheno Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 900
5BRR-01 Berri Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 2500
6ARM-01 Byford, Darling Downs, Haynes, Hilbert, Mount Richon, Wungong, Brookdale Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 4000
6ARM-04 Forrestdale, Haynes, Seville Grove, Armadale Nov-2016 Dec-2016 1 3600
3MOE-01 Trafalgar, Moe 22-Jul-2016 19-Aug-2016 1 2700
6MDR-10 Erskine 27-May-2016 24-Jun-2016 1 2500
3PTO-05 Portarlington 15-Jul-2016 12-Aug-2016 1 2200
3PTO-06 St Leonards 15-Jul-2016 12-Aug-2016 1 2800
3OCG-02 Breamlea, Barwon Heads 22-Jul-2016 19-Aug-2016 1 2800
3SHP-10 Kialla 29-Jul-2016 26-Aug-2016 1 1300
7BUI-03 East Cam, Ocean Vista, Park Grove, Parklands, Shorewell Park, Cooee Feb-2017 Mar-2017 1 2900
7ETD-02 Latrobe Feb-2017 Mar-2017 1 2000

Analysis based on NBN Co’s rollout schedule, reproduced by Telstra on the Telstra Wholesale website.  A variety of sources were checked to confirm this information.

Inside an NBN node at Umina Beach

Phone-only consumers to pay more in FTTN and HFC

(analysis) NBN Co has confirmed that they will force phone-only customers within their Fibre to the Node and HFC footprints off the existing PSTN service delivered over the current copper network from Telstra exchanges. Like the current migration of customers in the Fibre to the Premises footprint, all customers in the FTTN and HFC footprint will also need to migrate to the NBN network within 18 months after an area is NBN Ready for Service.

However, unlike the FTTP technology where NBN Co will install a Network Termination Device (NTD) at end users’ homes, customers or retail services providers are expected to provide the termination modem to connect to the NBN network. This leaves phone-only customers in an uncertain situation because phone signals are not natively transmitted over the FTTN or HFC networks.

Extra cost to consumers

NBN Co currently charges a minimum of $24.00 per month for its Access Virtual Circuit (similar to line rental, it allows service providers to access the data and voice ports on a customers’ premises). In addition to that, there are overhead costs for service providers to operate, connect and rent phone numbers.

However, in the FTTN or HFC footprint, customers will have to likely purchase (or have subsidised by service providers) a VDSL or cable modem with Voice Over IP (VOIP) functionality to make calls. With VDSL modems with in-built VOIP costing around $200 today, phone-only users in the FTTN footprint will likely have higher up-front costs or ongoing repayment costs compared with their FTTP footprint counterparts who can simply plug their existing phones into the NBN Co provided NTD. This would be a similar situation in the HFC footprint.

This means that consumers who don’t wish to access the Internet, yet retain a fixed-line phone connection, could potentially face up to $200 more up-front — or $8.30 per month on a 24 month contract.

No Backup Battery

It also creates further uncertainty for priority assist customers, or customers with medical or security alarms. The typical modems made available to consumers will unlikely have an uninterrupted power supply (UPS, also known as backup battery) in the event of a power outage. While the street-side nodes used by NBN Co in the FTTN network will have backup batteries, the customer’s modem will be unable to connect in the event of a power outage without a backup battery as well.

Elderly customers or customers with security or medical alarms may need to purchase an additional UPS to ensure their connection remains during a power outage, bearing further costs onto customers who only want a phone service.

FTTx & HFC will drive up mobile-only use

With these additional cost barriers likely to hit consumers in the FTTB/N and HFC footprints, phone-only consumers may be encouraged to abandon the fixed-like service and take up a mobile phone only service instead. With the increasing bandwidth made available using LTE and 3G technologies, transmitting voice and making phone calls over the cellular network has become cheaper than ever.

This may be even more problematic for NBN Co’s business case which used to assume that roughly 7% of the population will have mobile-only services. With the existing 7% of customers representing at least $18 million per year in lost potential revenue, NBN Co may need to find alternative avenues to make additional revenue.

Fibre rollout may be one-third less than Strategic Review

(analysis) NBN Co may rollout as little as 16% fibre to the premises under new principles released by the company. Their new guidelines reveal that within the fixed-line footprint, only new developments with over 100 premises or areas where fibre rollout are in advanced stages will likely receive Fibre to the Premises (FTTP). Remaining premises will be served by a mix of HFC and Fibre to the Node or Basement in the fixed-line footprint. This is despite the NBN Co Strategic Review initiated by the incoming Coalition government released 11 months ago suggested that at least 24% of premises in Australia will get FTTP.

Calculations conducted using myNBN.info’s extensive statistics reveal that only around 70 Fixed-line Service Areas (comparable to cities, see tables below) around the whole of Australia are “completed” or “in advanced stages” of the rollout (at least 50% of the rollout modules have at least begun build preparation). This accounts for roughly 1 million premises, or 8% at the end of the rollout in 2020. In addition, NBN Co expects another approximately 1 million premises in new developments (known as greenfields areas) with over 100 premises, accounting for a further 8%1. The total of 16% is roughly one third less than the original 24% suggested in the Strategic Review, or approximately 1 million premises around Australia.

The Government’s statement of expectations mandates the company to provide at least 25 mbps download speeds to all Australian premises with at least 90% of premises in the fixed-line footprint able to get 50 mbps or faster download speeds. NBN Co will only consider installing fibre in areas, not individual premises, where NBN Co finds the existing copper infrastructure to be incapable of delivering speeds required by the mandate. NBN Co is also investigating the possibility for installing fibre in limited “high-profit” areas as well as providing an end-user co-funded “fibre on demand” model.

The figure for greenfields fibre rollout may decrease further as the Government considers new rules that encourage property developers to use alternative fibre providers such as Opticomm.

In previous testimony, NBN Co’s CEO Bill Morrow had indicated that the Fibre to the Premises rollout mix may in fact be higher than that modelled in the Strategic Review:

Bill Morrow: In fact, the number that I recall is a bit higher than that in the early stage of the modelling that we are working on right now.

However, it appears that the modelling has reversed in terms of the number of FTTP premises. In less than 11 months, the multi-technology modelling conducted by NBN Co in their strategic review appears to have been proven to be inaccurate.

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